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Thursday, September 11, 2025
What’s happening: Crude oil settled higher on Wednesday amid rising geopolitical concerns.
What happened: Poland shot down drones in its airspace, while the US pushed the European Union to impose sanctions on China and India, which provided a boost to oil prices.
Oil prices rose despite US data showing rising crude inventories.
Why it matters: Oil prices had settled higher on Tuesday amid rising concerns in the Middle East. Oil extended gains on Wednesday due to heightened geopolitical concerns after Poland downed drones over its airspace for the first time since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.
US President Donald Trump has been pushing the European Union to announce 100% tariffs on China and India, which are key buyers of oil from Russia, in an attempt to pressurise Russia into holding peace talks.
However, markets are divided over whether the EU will succumb to those pressures and announce tariffs on India or China, especially since the bloc still does business with Moscow. The EU imported almost $42 billion of goods from Russia in 2024, as per data from the bloc’s statistics agency.
Investors expect the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at its upcoming meeting this month, which could provide a boost to economic growth and raise oil demand.
On the other hand, rising stockpiles of US crude, gasoline and distillate last week indicate constrained demand for oil.
The Energy Information Administration reported that crude inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, much higher than market expectations of a decline of 1 million barrels. US gasoline stocks surged by 1.5 million barrels, versus estimates of a decline of 200,000 barrels, while distillate stockpiles grew by 4.7 million barrels, compared to estimates of a gain of only 35,000 barrels.
Brent crude prices jumped $1.10, or 1.7%, to close at $67.49 per barrel on Wednesday, while WTI crude oil gained $1.04, or 1.7%, to finish at $63.67 per barrel.
What to watch: Investors await the release of economic data on changes in the US natural gas stockpiles (1830 UAE Time) from the EIA today. US natural gas inventories, which rose by 55 billion cubic feet during the week ending August 29, are expected to surge by 66 billion cubic feet in the latest week.
Context: The JPY/USD forex pair edged higher this morning as investors digested the latest economic data.
Details: Data released this morning showed Japan’s Business Survey Index for large manufacturing firms surprisingly surged to 3.8% in the third quarter, from -4.8% in the previous quarter, which was the weakest reading since the first quarter of 2024.
The latest reading topped market estimates of a decline to 3.3% and marked the first return to the positive zone in three quarters.
Meanwhile, Japan’s producer prices climbed 2.7% year-over-year in August, compared to a 2.5% gain in the previous month, but came in-line with market estimates.
Weakness in the US dollar lent some support to the JPY/USD forex pair this morning. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, edged lower to 97.82.
The JPY/USD pair rose to 147.46 this morning, while the Nikkei 225 index jumped around 0.9% to 44,231.14 and the TOPIX index rose about 0.1% to 3,143.49.
What to watch: Data on industrial production (0830 UAE Time) and capacity utilisation (0830 UAE Time) from Japan will be released on Friday. Japan’s industrial production is expected to decline 1.6% in July, following 2.1% growth in June, while the capacity utilisation in Japan is expected to rise by 1% in July, following a 1.8% decline in June.
Other Markets: US trading indices closed mixed on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 up by 0.30% and 0.04%, and the Dow Jones index down by 0.48%.
Germany announced the delivery of the first launchers of two Patriot air defence systems to help Ukraine in its war with Russia. The news sent the RUB/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Australia’s consumer inflation expectations surged to 4.7% in September, from 3.9% in the previous month, exerting pressure on the AUD/USD forex pair.
Argentina’s consumer prices rose 1.9% in August, up from 1.5% in May, which sent the ARS/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Brazil’s annual inflation rate slowed to 5.13% in August, from 5.23% in the previous month, lending support to the BRL/USD forex pair.
Fitch Ratings raised India’s GDP growth outlook to 6.9% for FY25-26, from its previous outlook of 6.5%. However, the INR/USD pair slipped in forex trading this morning amid concerns around EU tariffs.
South Africa’s current account (1300 UAE Time), gold production (1330 UAE Time), mining production (1330 UAE Time) and manufacturing production (1500 UAE Time), UK’s Treasury Gilt 2029 auction (1300 UAE Time) and Treasury Stock 2032 auction (1300 UAE Time), Italy’s 3-year BTP auction (1310 UAE Time) and 7-year BTP auction (1310 UAE Time), Turkey’s interest rate decision (1500 UAE Time) and foreign exchange reserves (1530 UAE Time), Brazil’s retail sales (1600 UAE Time) and business confidence (1800 UAE Time), Mexico’s industrial production (1600 UAE Time), European Central Bank’s interest rate decision (1615 UAE Time), US inflation rate (1630 UAE Time), initial jobless claims (1630 UAE Time), continuing jobless claims (1630 UAE Time), 4-week Bill auction (1930 UAE Time), 8-week Bill auction (1930 UAE Time), 15-year Mortgage Rate (2000 UAE Time), 30-year Mortgage Rate (2000 UAE Time), 30-year Bond Auction (2100 UAE Time) and monthly budget statement (2200 UAE Time), Germany’s current account (1645 UAE Time), as well as Russia’s balance of trade (1700 UAE Time).
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