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Trends & Analysis
News

Kroger shares fall despite Q1 sales beat

News

Brent crude falls below $80 on US-Iran peace deal

News

JPY gains versus USD on strong trade data

News

US dollar gains ahead of central bank meetings

News

Gold surges after US-Iran peace deal

News

Dow jumps 900+ points on Iran deal prospects

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Asset Watch

Follow S&P 500 seasonality?

Thursday, May 18, 2023

While the S&P 500 suffered in May, bearish seasonality made the index ripe for a pullback. Seasonality turns bullish next week and as the U.S. equity benchmark often surpasses its April/May high in June, a rally above 4,186 could be on the cards over the next month.
The biggest cloud on the horizon right now is the debt ceiling drama. With the hypothetical June deadline fast approaching, a deadlock could bring back memories of 2011 when the S&P 500 declined substantially. So, monitoring the negotiations to determine if these clouds could bring rain will be critical.

If there’s no rain, the short-term outlook is quite constructive. On top of the seasonal shift, the S&P 500’s 10-week moving average has largely acted as support and resistance throughout 2023. And if you analyse the grey arrows near the right side of the chart, you can see that buyers stepped in when intraweek volatility recently struck the index.

 

The S&P 500 ended the May 16 session less than 20 points above the key level, meaning the next pullback could be the final one before the seasonal bulls gain the upper hand.

 

Should you keep your finger near the buy button, or has the correction only just begun?


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