Gold price extends its rally as the US dollar weakens

Gold Hits New Records

Gold prices reached fresh all-time highs today, testing $3,750 per ounce in yesterday’s session. Since the start of the year, gold has risen more than 40%, while silver has gained over 50% in 2025.

Key drivers behind gold’s sharp rise include increased central bank demand, as institutions diversify away from US dollar reserves and into gold. Geopolitical tensions have also reinforced gold’s role as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, the US dollar has declined by 10% this year, weighed down by the Federal Reserve’s resumption of interest rate cuts—previously on hold due to inflation concerns linked to the new tariffs introduced by the new Trump administration.

What’s on the Market This Week

Investors will closely monitor Federal Reserve member speeches to assess whether views align with the Chairman’s stance on gradually reducing rates toward neutral levels.

Markets also await the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure for August, with particular focus on core PCE (excluding energy and food), where the services sector plays a major role. Forecasts point to a rise from 2.9% in July to 3.0% in August.

• If the data meets or falls below expectations, it will reinforce the case for two Fed rate cuts this year, consistent with the September dot plot, and potentially open the door for further cuts in 2026—supporting continued gains in gold.
• However, if the reading exceeds expectations, it could limit the Fed’s scope for easing next year, narrowing expectations to just one cut.

Gold Prices – Technical Analysis

At the end of August, gold broke the April 22 high of $3,500 per ounce, triggering an uptrend that carried prices to today’s new high of $3,759. The metal now appears to be eying a test of the high end of the current trading zone located between $3,700 and $3,800. A daily close above the high end of the zone would confirm strong bullish momentum and could encourage bulls to extend their rally toward $3,900. Although, the psychological resistance of $3,850 should be considered.

Levels to Watch on the Downside

A daily close below $3,700 would signal weakening momentum, prompting profit-taking and potential selling pressure that could drive prices toward $3,600. In this case, the support level residing at the September 18 low of $3,628 should be monitored.

It’s worth noting that the Relative Strength Index remains in overbought territory, reflecting the strength of the uptrend. A drop below 70, however, could signal the start of a potential price pullback.

Gold – Daily Price Chart

Chart Source: ADSS Platform