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Asset Watch
Thursday, July 13, 2023
The vertical grey lines below mark the beginning of the last five Prime Day events, and the milestones typically occur in July. In October 2020, the event was moved due to the pandemic, and was set in June 2021 to avoid competing with the Olympics.
Yet, the price action shows that the stock typically rallies before the festivities and suffers mild-to-meaningful drawdowns thereafter. In 2018, Amazon continued its post-Prime-Day rally for nearly three months before declining sharply, and the bullish momentum also continued for roughly a month in 2021 and 2022. But the event largely marked the tops in 2019 and 2020.
As Amazon is already experiencing a substantial rally off its January 2023 low, further momentum may depend on management’s guidance when they report earnings in late July.
So, will Amazon repeat its historical disappointment, or are its best days still ahead?
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