Asset Watch
Tuesday, October 3 2022
When analysing the Nike/SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) ratio, Nike has underperformed in the S&P 500 for eight of the last 10 months. However, an identical underperformance occurred in 2016, and the streak stretched to nine of 10 months in 1997 (the vertical rectangles).
Yet, in 1997, Nike outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 7% over the following six months. After the 2016 drawdown, Nike outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 7% over the following seven months. With history on the retailer’s side and S&P 500 seasonality poised to turn bullish in early/mid-October, Nike could offer a solid-risk reward proposition once sentiment shifts.
The Nike/SPY ratio’s monthly RSI is the most oversold since 2000. Therefore, it’s been more than 20 years since Nike has lagged behind the S&P 500 to this extent. Furthermore, since Nike is the global leader in sportswear with a 15% market share, will long-term traders be rewarded for their patience?