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News

Gold prices rise after 3 weeks of decline

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Kroger shares fall despite Q1 sales beat

News

Brent crude falls below $80 on US-Iran peace deal

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JPY gains versus USD on strong trade data

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US dollar gains ahead of central bank meetings

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Gold surges after US-Iran peace deal

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Asset Watch

Should you bank on the regional banks?

 

Tuesday, April 24, 2023

The financial sector has been a punching bag for the last month due to deposit outflows and GFC prophecies crushing the regional banks. And while S&P 500 seasonality turns bearish in May, could the SPDR S&P Regional Banking (KRE) ETF be a boon for patient traders?
Supporting the bull case, former PIMCO heavyweight Bill Gross wrote on Apr. 21:
“Many regionals are down 30%-40%… [and] recent ROEs of 9%-10% at 60% of book provide an enticing long-term investment. Many smaller regionals may be gobbled up by larger counterparts at premium-to-market bids. [My purchases] include WAL, KRE (an ETF), SNV, and PACW.”

Even though he acknowledged that a recession could hurt the positions, history suggests the risk is worth the reward.

The KRE ETF’s monthly chart highlights the constructive setup. For example, its monthly RSI (the black line at the bottom) is near decade-plus lows, and the vertical grey lines highlight how similar readings marked historical bottoms.

In addition, the KRE ETF has multi-year support in the $40 to $42 range, depicted by the highs and lows from 2013 to 2015 and the highs before the 2020 breakout. As a result, with the crisis calming and the technicals supporting a reversal, the slightest shift in sentiment could prove profitable for the optimists.

Should you buy when others are fearful? Or are the bears about to mastermind another mauling?


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