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Trends & Analysis
News

GBP/USD recovers following wage report

News

Buy the JPMorgan dip?

News

Goldman Sachs shares surge after earnings beat

News

Keep an eye on these key S&P 500 levels

News

US big banks report better-than-expected earnings

News

Crude oil declines on profit taking

Asset Watch

Should you run with the S&P 500 bulls?

Wednesday, December 13, 2023

Investors continue to exhibit soft landing optimism, as lower inflation and resilient growth are viewed as the main ingredients for a lasting bull market. And with the S&P 500 a primary beneficiary, Oppenheimer Asset Management’s Chief Strategist John Stoltzfus told clients on Dec. 11 that the index could hit 5,200 in 2024. He wrote:
“We look for 2024 to be a year of transition as markets navigate what we expect will be the Fed’s pivot from a restrictive monetary policy setting to an easier stance… We believe the Fed wants to avoid pushing the economy into a recession.”
While the fundamentals and the technicals move in positive directions, will the optimists outduel the pessimists in the months ahead?

On the one hand, the S&P 500 has broken out above the key 4,600 level, which roughly marked the July and December highs. If the index can hold the gains over the next few days, confirmation should be in place.

 

However, S&P 500 seasonality turns bearish soon, as January ties as the worst-performing month of the year. Even though a December rally aligns with historical precedent, the real test arrives when the calendar turns.

 

A prudent way to play it is to monitor the 20-day moving average (the blue line). It provided support in early December and is a solid gauge of short-term momentum.

 

So, will the S&P 500 surpass 5,000 over the medium term, or will we see 4,200 first?


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