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Thursday, October 16, 2025
What’s happening: Crude oil prices recovered this morning after recording losses in the previous session.
What happened: Oil prices rose after US President Donald Trump claimed that India intends to stop purchasing oil from Russia.
Weakness in the US dollar lent further support to oil prices this morning.
Why it matters: Crude oil fell sharply on Wednesday, with both benchmarks hitting their weakest levels since early May amid rising trade tensions between the US and China.
The IEA’s (International Energy Agency) warning of a big surplus in 2026 due to higher output from the OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major oil-exporting nations) producers also weighed on oil prices.
Trump claimed that India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi had pledged to stop buying oil from Russia. Following the sanctions on Russia, the country has emerged as India’s top oil supplier, accounting for 34% of its crude imports.
India has neither confirmed nor denied Trump’s claims of a pause on Russian oil imports.
Trump urged China to do the same, as the US is looking to increase pressure on Moscow to negotiate a peace agreement with Ukraine.
Meanwhile, data from the US showed crude inventories surged by 7.36 million barrels in the recent week. This is the biggest rise in inventories since July. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.99 million barrels, while distillate inventories dipped 4.79 million barrels.
Weakness in the US dollar provided further support to oil prices, as a softer greenback makes commodities cheaper for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell 0.3% to 98.50 this morning.
WTI crude oil prices gained 0.8% to trade at $58.71 per barrel, while Brent crude prices climbed 0.7% to $62.34 per barrel this morning.
In other energy trading, gasoline rose 0.2% to $1.8371, while natural gas added 0.6% to rach $3.034. Heating oil jumped 0.9% to $2.1953 this morning.
What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on comments from India about its plans to stop importing oil from Russia.
Data on EIA’s crude oil stockpiles change (2000 UAE Time), gasoline stockpiles change (2000 UAE Time) and distillate stockpiles change (2000 UAE Time) will also be released today. Crude oil inventories in the US, which jumped by 3.715 million barrels in the week ending October 3, are expected to rise by 0.12 million in the recent week. Stockpiles of gasoline dipped by 1.6 million barrels in the week ending October 3, while distillate inventories declined by 2.018 barrels.
Context: The AUD/USD forex pair slipped this morning following soft jobs data.
Details: The Australian Bureau of Statistics said that the unemployment rate surged more than expected to 4.5% in September. This marked the highest reading since November 2021. Employment rose by just 14,900 to 14.64 million in September, below market estimates of a 17,000 gain.
The recent data indicated softness in the labour market, raising speculations of the Reserve Bank of Australia resuming interest rate cuts as early as next month.
Weakness in the US dollar lent some support to the AUD/USD pair. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell around 0.3% to 98.50 this morning.
The AUD/USD forex pair fell more than 0.1% to 0.6497 this morning, while the S&P/ASX 200 gained around 0.8% to trade at 9,064.50.
What to watch: With no major economic reports scheduled for release today, investors await data on S&P Global manufacturing PMI, S&P Global services PMI and S&P Global composite PMI from Australia next week.
The S&P Global manufacturing PMI, which declined to 51.4 in September from 53 in the previous month, is expected to fall further to 51 in October. Analysts expect the S&P Global services PMI business activity index to decline to 51.8 in October from 52.4 in September.
Other Markets: European indices closed mixed on Wednesday, with the FTSE 100 and DAX 40 down by 0.30% and 0.23%, respectively, and CAC 40 and STOXX Europe 600 Index up by 1.99% and 0.57%, respectively.
Russian forces have gained control of the village in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. The news sent the RUB/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Japan’s core machinery orders declined 0.9% to ¥8890 billion in August, improving from a 4.6% plunge in the previous month, which lent some support to the JPY/USD forex pair.
New Zealand’s annual food inflation slowed to 4.1% in September, from 5% in the previous month. The region’s food inflation easing to its lowest level since April sent the NZD/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Peru’s GDP expanded by 3.18% year-over-year in August. This being the seventeenth straight month of growth lent support to the PEN/USD forex pair.
Colombia’s industrial production grew by 1% year-over-year in August, slowing from a 5.8% surge in the previous month, which sent the COP/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Italy’s inflation rate (1200 UAE Time) and balance of trade (1300 UAE Time), Spain’s 10-year Obligacion auction (1240 UAE Time), 5-year Bonos auction (1240 UAE Time) and 7-year Obligacion auction (1240 UAE Time), Eurozone’s balance of trade (1300 UAE Time), France’s 2028 OAT auction (1300 UAE Time), 2030 OAT auction (1300 UAE Time), 2031 OAT auction (1300 UAE Time), 2034 Index-Linked OAT auction (1500 UAE Time), 2040 Index-Linked OAT auction (1500 UAE Time) and 2053 Index-Linked OAT auction (1500 UAE Time), Canada’s CFIB business barometer (1500 UAE Time) and housing starts (1615 UAE Time), South Africa’s building permits (1500 UAE Time), Turkey’s foreign exchange reserves (1530 UAE Time), Brazil’s IBC-BR economic activity (1600 UAE Time), as well as US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (1630 UAE Time), Philly Fed business conditions (1630 UAE Time), Philly Fed employment (1630 UAE Time), Philly Fed new orders (1630 UAE Time), NAHB housing market index (1800 UAE Time), EIA natural gas stocks change (1830 UAE Time), 4-week Bill auction (1930 UAE Time), 8-week Bill auction (1930 UAE Time), 15-year Mortgage Rate (2000 UAE Time) and 30-year Mortgage Rate (2000 UAE Time).
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