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Weekly Market Preview
Friday, 12 September 2025
Traders are closely watching the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision this week. Bloomberg forecasts suggest the central bank may cut rates by 25 basis points, from 2.75% to 2.50%. Weakness in the Canadian labor market, the need to stimulate an economy that slipped into negative growth in the second quarter, and relatively subdued inflation levels are the main factors supporting expectations of a rate cut. Markets will also pay attention to the Bank of Canada’s press conference for signals on the future direction of monetary policy.
This week will also bring the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, accompanied by updates on growth, inflation, and unemployment forecasts, as well as the quarterly “dot plot” chart outlining policymakers’ views on future rate paths. The Fed is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points, from 4.50% to 4.25%. Investors will focus on Chair Powell’s press conference, where he is expected to explain the Federal Open Market Committee’s economic outlook and the reasoning behind the number of cuts reflected in the dot plot. Any suggestion that the Fed is prioritizing support for the labor market could lead markets to anticipate further easing in 2026.
Later in the week, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to announce its policy decision. Markets forecasts point to rates being held steady at 4.00%. It is worth recalling that the August decision to cut rates by 25 basis points passed by a narrow 5–4 vote. The main factor limiting appetite for additional cuts is the sharp rise in inflation, which moved well above the 2% target and approached 4% in July. Investors will closely monitor the voting breakdown for clues on future policy direction. If the decision to hold rates this month is backed by a wide majority, expectations for near-term cuts will likely fade—unless inflation falls meaningfully enough to shift sentiment within the committee.
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