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Weekly Market Preview
Monday, 1 September 2025
At the start of the week, traders will focus on the preliminary release of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index for August. Forecasts point to a slight uptick in inflation, with the annual rate expected to rise from 2.0% in July to 2.1% in August, and core inflation from 2.3% to 2.4%.
The European Central Bank kept its policy rate at 2.0% in its latest meeting, following a series of cuts that began in June last year. The recently concluded trade agreement between the European Union and the United States has provided markets with more certainty on trade relations, reducing immediate pressure on the ECB to ease policy further. Currently, markets are pricing in the possibility of a 25-basis point rate cut in Europe this year. However, if inflation prints above expectations, it could prompt investors to scale back expectations for rate cuts in 2025.
In the U.S., attention will turn to the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August (a key gauge of industrial activity). The index fell from 49 in June to 48 in July, signalling contraction. Bloomberg forecasts suggest a modest rebound in August, though the reading is expected to remain below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction. A weaker-than-expected print would likely amplify concerns about slowing growth and increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates at its September meeting, with the potential for additional cuts later in the year.
Before the weekends, the spotlight will shift to the U.S. August jobs report, which will provide fresh insights into labour market conditions, including job creation, unemployment, and wage growth. Consensus estimates suggest the economy added 80,000 jobs in August, compared with 73,000 in July, while the unemployment rate is expected to edge higher from 4.2% to 4.3%. These figures highlight ongoing labour market weakness. If the data comes in below forecasts, it may reinforce signs of deterioration and intensify pressure on the Fed to accelerate policy easing—potentially with two 25 basis point cuts this year, the first as early as September.
Monday, 1st of Sep
Tuesday, 2nd of Sep
Wednesday, 3rd of Sep
Thursday, 4th of Sep
Friday, 5th of Sep
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