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Weekly Market Preview
Friday, 17 October 2025
Markets are gearing up for a busy week filled with important economic data releases and speeches from monetary policymakers at several major central banks. This week, attention will focus on the UK Consumer Price Index data for September.
According to Bloomberg forecasts, the YoY headline inflation is expected to rise from 3.8% in August to 4.0% in September, driven by persistent inflationary pressures from food prices and the services sector. Meanwhile, core annual inflation is projected to edge up from 3.6% to 3.7%.
Considering these expectations, the Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.00%, especially after its August rate cut, which was approved by a narrow margin of 5–4. However, if inflation comes in below expectations, it could open the door for a potential rate cut at the November meeting, provided that the October report shows a clear decline in inflation levels.
Later in the week, attention will turn to U.S. Consumer Price Index data for September. Forecasts suggest that core inflation (excluding food and energy) will remain steady at 3.1%, while headline inflation may rise slightly from 2.9% to 3.0%.
It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve cut U.S. interest rates by 25 basis points at its previous meeting and signalled the possibility of further cuts this year and next, citing a weakening labour market. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also indicated that labour market conditions this month remain largely unchanged from last month, when the rate cut was implemented.
Based on these signals, markets are currently pricing in a 100% probability of another 25-basis-point cut in October, and around a 90% probability in December. Stable or lower inflation levels would give the Federal Reserve more room to continue easing monetary policy. Therefore, any inflation data weaker than expected could increase the likelihood of additional rate cuts in future meetings, potentially weighing on the U.S. dollar.
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