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Weekly Market Preview
Friday, 19 September 2025
The Swiss National Bank will announce its interest rate decision this week. At its last meeting in June, the SNB cut rates by 25 basis points, and it is now expected to keep them unchanged at 0%. Swiss inflation has been on a steady decline since the second quarter of last year, falling into negative territory in the second quarter of this year. Key drivers of this decline include lower mortgage-linked housing rents and a drop in electricity prices.
Investors will also focus on the SNB’s press conference, where policymakers are likely to reiterate their reliance on economic data while maintaining their commitment to price stability. The SNB president has suggested that the central bank is reluctant to push rates into negative territory, though he has not ruled it out entirely, tying such a move to a significant fall in inflation. Markets will also look for clarity on monetary policy direction given the high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Swiss products.
Toward the end of the week, attention will shift to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures data for August, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Forecasts suggest that the YoY headline PCE rate will rise from 2.6% in July to 2.8% in August, while the YoY core PCE (excluding food and energy) could edge up from 2.9% to 3.0%.
The Federal Reserve resumed rate cuts at its last meeting after pausing at the end of last year. Its forecast for a rate cut, reflected in the dot plot, was broadly aligned with market expectations of a possible 50 basis point cut by year-end. However, Fed members’ projections of a 25-basis point cut next year (aimed at preserving labour market stability) have been met with scepticism from investors, many of whom believe a deeper 50–75 basis point reduction will be necessary. Consequently, higher-than-expected inflation would likely limit the Fed’s ability to pursue further cuts next year, while weaker inflation readings could strengthen the case for additional easing.
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