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Asset Watch

Does 20 rule the NASDAQ 100?

Thursday, February 23, 2023

With rising interest rates rattling the NASDAQ 100, Big Tech has bemoaned the big move in U.S. Treasury yields. On Feb. 21, S&P Global’s U.S. Composite PMI stated “February data signaled a sharper rise in output charges across the private sector. The pace of increase in selling prices was the quickest since last October.”
As a result of problematic inflation still being present and “the rate of job creation accelerating to the fastest since September 2022,” the data that drives the U.S. Federal Reserve remains profoundly hawkish.
The NASDAQ 100 recorded a reliable sell signal on Feb. 21. The grey arrows show how the last four breakdowns below the 20-day moving average resulted in further weakness, and the latest iteration has just begun.
NASDAQ 100 Index Stock Chart Trading View

Furthermore, while the milestone did not occur in December, the breakdowns in August, April and January resulted in backtests to the 20-day MA that ultimately failed. Therefore, if a similar rejection occurs this time, it could have ominous implications in the weeks ahead.

The NASDAQ 100’s daily RSI also remains above the lows that marked previous bottoms, highlighting the mild nature of the current sell-off. So, if history is any indication, you should proceed with caution until the technicals are more constructive.

Right now, 12,332 is now resistance, and the bears have gained the upper hand. Will the mauling continue, or will the NASDAQ 100 climb the wall of worry once again?


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