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US stocks hit record highs on inflation data

Monday, October 27, 2025

Today’s headlines

What’s happening: US stocks rose sharply on Friday, taking all three major indices to record closing highs.

What happened: Softer-than-expected inflation report from the US helped the S&P 500 notch its strongest weekly percentage surge since August.

Strong corporate earnings data provided a further boost to Wall Street equities during Friday’s session.

Why it matters: Consumer prices in the US rose much less than expected in September as the higher cost of gasoline was offset by a moderation in rents. The annual inflation rate in the US accelerated to 3% in September, from 2.9% in August, but came in below market estimates of 3.1%.

The US CPI report, which was initially due to be released on October 15, was published on Friday despite the government shutdown, which has caused a delay in many data releases.

Other data announced on Friday showed the S&P Global composite PMI surged to 54.8 in October, from 53.9 in the previous month, recording the strongest reading since July. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US fell to 53.6 in October, from 55.1 in September, while year-ahead inflation expectations fell for the second month to 4.6% in October.

Markets believe the Federal Reserve remains on course to cutting interest rates later this week.

On the earnings front, 143 of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings results so far and analysts estimate the average earnings growth for the third quarter at 10.4% year-over-year, versus the 8.8% growth projection as of October 1.

Ford’s shares surged more than 12% after the company topped third-quarter profit estimates. Shares of General Dynamics gained around 3% after topping market estimates for the latest quarter.

Tech stocks rose sharply as shares of Intel closed higher after the company returned to profitability and provided a strong revenue outlook. Nvidia’s shares climbed 2.3%, while shares of Alphabet surged 2.7% during the session.

Financial stocks also received a boost on prospects that an easier monetary policy will provide support to lending. Shares of JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citi all settled higher on Friday.

The Dow Jones index jumped 472.51 points, or 1.01%, to close at 47,207.12 on Friday, while the S&P 500 added 0.79% to 6,791.69 and the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.04% to settle at 25,358.16.

What to watch: Investors await the release of earnings reports from the “Magnificent Seven” group of mega-cap companies, including Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, Apple and Amazon.com this week.

Data on Dallas Fed manufacturing index (1830 UAE Time) will be released today. The Dallas Fed’s general business activity index for Texas manufacturing, which declined to -8.7 in September from -1.7 in the previous month, is expected to improve to -2 in October.

The markets today

The euro in focus today ahead of a basket of major economic reports

Context: The EUR/USD forex pair gained this morning as investors digested the latest PMI figures.

Details: Data released on Friday showed that the Eurozone’s private sector grew at its fastest pace since May 2024, boosted by strong services growth and some stabilisation in manufacturing activity.

The HCOB Eurozone composite PMI jumped to 52.2 in October, from 51.2 in the previous month. The figure also topped market estimates of 51. Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI climbed to 50 in October, from 49.8 in September, while services PMI surged to 52.6 from 51.3 in the previous month.

The HCOB Germany composite PMI rose to 53.8 in October from 52 in the previous month, while France composite PMI fell to 46.8 in October from 48.1 in September.

Weakness in the US dollar also provided a boost to the EUR/USD pair this morning. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell 0.2% to 98.78.

The EUR/USD forex pair gained around 0.1% to 1.1647, while the EUR/GBP pair edged lower to 0.8735 this morning. The STOXX Europe 600 Index gained 0.23% to a record close of 575.76 on Friday.

What to watch: Data on Eurozone’s loans to companies (1300 UAE Time), loans to households (1300 UAE Time) and M3 money supply (1300 UAE Time) will be released today. Bank lending to non-financial corporations in the Eurozone, which rose by 3% year-over-year to a record high level of €5.257 trillion in August, is expected to grow by 3.2% in September.

Analysts expect bank lending to households in the Eurozone to surge by 2.6% year-over-year in September, up from 2.5% growth in August. The M3 money supply, which jumped by 2.9% year-over-year to €16.912 trillion in August, is expected to surge by 2.7% in September.

Other Markets: Asian indices traded higher on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI up by 1.65% and 2.22%, respectively.

The news shaping the markets

President Vladimir Putin said that Russia had successfully tested its nuclear-capable Burevestnik cruise missile. The news sent the RUB/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.


The White House said that the US and Vietnam are on course to finalising a trade deal that would keep the tariff rate at 20% on most Vietnamese goods. This lent support to the VND/USD forex pair.


China’s foreign direct investment declined 10.4% year-over-year to 573.75 billion yuan in the first nine months of the year. However, FDI surged 11.2% year-over-year in September, which sent the CNY/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.


Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus rose to SAR 24.2 billion in August, from SAR 23.3 billion in the year-ago month. The country recording the largest surplus since May 2024 lent support to the SAR/USD forex pair.


Canada’s new housing prices declined 0.2% in September compared to a 0.3% plunge in August, which sent the CAD/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.

What else to watch today

Germany’s Ifo business climate (1300 UAE Time), Ifo current conditions (1300 UAE Time) and Ifo expectations (1300 UAE Time), South Africa’s 182-day T-Bill auction (1430 UAE Time), 273-day T-Bill auction (1430 UAE Time), 364-day T-Bill auction (1430 UAE Time) and 91-day T-Bill auction (1430 UAE Time), Brazil’s FGV consumer confidence (1500 UAE Time), UK’s CBI distributive trades (1500 UAE Time), Mexico’s balance of trade (1600 UAE Time), France’s 12-month BTF auction (1800 UAE Time), 3-month BTF auction (1800 UAE Time) and 6-month BTF auction (1800 UAE Time), as well as US 2-year Note auction (1930 UAE Time), 6-month Bill auction (1930 UAE Time), 3-month Bill auction (2100 UAE Time) and 5-year Note auction (2100 UAE Time).


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