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Tuesday, November 25, 2025
What’s happening: Gold prices recorded gains on Monday and this morning as investors re-assessed the US monetary policy outlook.
What happened: Following mixed economic data released by the US, investors await the key inflation data.
Speculations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December lent further support to gold prices.
Why it matters: Although US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) rose by 119,000 in September, much higher than market expectations of 50,000, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, from 4.3% in the previous month.
Following this mixed data, New York Fed President John Williams said on Friday that the central bank could cut its benchmark interest rates in the near term.
The CME FedWatch tool showed that markets are now pricing in nearly a 74% probability of the central bank cutting its benchmark interest rates in December, up sharply from approximately 39% on Thursday.
Gold, a non-yielding asset, generally sees higher demand in a low-rate environment, and during times of economic uncertainty.
Weakness in the US dollar lent further support to gold prices, as a softer greenback makes metals cheaper for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell more than 0.1% to 100.14 on Monday.
US gold for December delivery gained 0.4% to close at $4,094.2 per ounce on Monday. Prices for the yellow metal extended gains this morning, rising 1.2% to $4,144 per ounce.
In other metals trading, silver prices jumped 1% to $50.845 an ounce this morning, while copper added 0.6% to $4.9975. Platinum rose 0.2% to $1,554.9 and palladium added 0.1% to reach $1,407.00.
What to watch: Investors await the release of some major economic reports, which were delayed due to the federal government shutdown. Data on PPI (1730 UAE Time), retail sales (1730 UAE Time) and S&P/Case-Shiller home price (1800 UAE Time) will be released today.
Producer prices in the US, which declined 0.1% in August, are expected to rise by 0.3% in September. Analysts expect retail sales in the US to grow 0.4% in September, decelerating from 0.6% in August. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index, which surged 1.6% year-over-year in August, is projected to rise by 1.4% in September.
Context: European markets recovered slightly on Monday, trimming some losses from the previous week.
Details: Tech stocks recorded sharp gains on Monday, tracking the overall positive market sentiment in the US, recovering some of the losses made last week.
Risk sensitive stocks benefitted on Monday after US Fed Governor Waller supported an interest-rate cut in December. Shares of ASML gained 3% while Infineon’s stock added more than 3.5%.
While there has been no breakthrough in the peace talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war, the hopes are higher around a new US-drafted plan.
Meanwhile, markets overlooked negative data released by Germany on Monday. The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell to 88.1 in November from 88.4 in the previous month. This figure missed market estimates of 88.5.
The STOXX Europe 600 Index added 0.14% to close at 562.88 on Monday, while Germany’s DAX 40 gained 0.64% to reach 23,239.18. London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.05% to settle at 9,534.91, while France’s CAC 40 lost 0.295 to 7,959.67.
What to watch: Investors await the release of Eurozone’s economic sentiment, consumer confidence and industrial sentiment on Thursday. The economic sentiment indicator in the Eurozone, which jumped to 96.8 in October, is expected to rise further to 97 in November.
Analysts expect the Eurozone’s consumer confidence index to remain at -14.2 in November, unchanged from the previous month. The industry confidence indicator is projected to improve to -8 in November, from -8.2 in October.
Other Markets: US trading indices closed higher on Monday, with the Dow Jones index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 up by 0.44%, 1.55% and 2.62%, respectively.
US President Donald Trump signalled “big progress” in the ongoing peace talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war. The news sent the RUB/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.
South Korea’s Composite Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 112.4 in November from 109.8 in the previous month. The latest figure being the highest since November 2017 lent support to the KRW/USD forex pair.
The Bank of Israel slashed its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 4.25%, which sent the ILS/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Chile’s producer prices surged 9.7% year-over-year in October, accelerating from 9.5% in the previous month, which exerted pressure on the CLP/USD forex pair.
Brazil’s FGV-IBRE consumer confidence index jumped to 89.8 in November from 88.5 in the previous month. Consumer confidence reaching the strongest level since December 2024 sent the BRL/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Spain’s PPI (1200 UAE Time), South Africa’s weekly bond auction (1330 UAE Time), UK’s Treasury Gilt 2031 auction (1400 UAE Time) and CBI distributive trades (1500 UAE Time), Italy’s 15-year BTP€i auction (1410 UAE Time), 2-year BTP Short Term auction (1410 UAE Time) and 5-year BTP€i auction (1410 UAE Time), Germany’s 5-year Bobl auction (1430 UAE Time), Brazil’s current account (1530 UAE Time) and foreign direct investment (1530 UAE Time), Mexico’s retail sales (1600 UAE Time), US ADP employment change weekly (1715 UAE Time), Redbook index (1755 UAE Time), FHFA house price index (1800 UAE Time), business inventories (1900 UAE Time), CB consumer confidence (1900 UAE Time), pending home sales (1900 UAE Time), Richmond Fed manufacturing index (1900 UAE Time), Richmond Fed services revenues index (1900 UAE Time), Dallas Fed services index (1930 UAE Time), Dallas Fed services revenues index (1930 UAE Time), 52-week Bill auction (2030 UAE Time), 2-year FRN auction (2200 UAE Time), 5-year Note auction (2200 UAE Time) and money supply (2200 UAE Time), Canada’s wholesale sales (1730 UAE Time), Mexico’s current account (1900 UAE Time), as well as Argentina’s economic activity (2300 UAE Time).
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