Gold rises amid hopes of US-Iran talks

Today’s headlines

What’s happening: Gold prices edged higher this morning amid hopes of the resumption of talks between the US and Iran.

What happened: The US and Iran are working to schedule a second round of negotiations in the coming days following the collapse of talks last weekend.

Weakness in the US dollar also provided further a boost to gold prices this morning.

Why it matters: Gold prices extended gains this morning on hopes that a deal between the US and Iran could be reached. US President Donald Trump said talks to end its ongoing war with Iran could be held in Pakistan again over the coming days.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian had said earlier that Tehran is fully prepared to reach a deal that guarantees lasting regional peace and security.

Meanwhile, the US has continued to block the Strait of Hormuz for vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports. Iran is considering a temporary suspension of shipments through the Strait to avoid any confrontation with the US Navy.

Meanwhile, data released on Tuesday showed that US producer prices rose less than expected in March, despite higher energy prices due to the Middle East conflict.

Speculations of the Federal Reserve not needing to hike interest rates this year lend support to gold prices. The yellow metal tends to see lower demand in a higher rate environment as the bullion offers no yield.

Weakness in the US dollar lent further support to gold prices, as a softer greenback makes metals cheaper for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, slipped to 98.12 this morning.

Spot price for gold edged higher to $4,845.46 an ounce this morning.

In other metals trading, silver prices rose 1.1% to $80.4235 an ounce, platinum jumped 1.5% to $2,138.65 and palladium gained 0.7% to $1,598.44.

What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on ongoing developments related to US-Iran war.

Data on NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (1630 UAE Time), import prices (1630 UAE Time) and export prices (1630 UAE Time) will be released today. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, which declined to -0.2 in March from 7.1 in the previous month, is expected to fall further to -0.5 in April. US import prices, which rose 1.3% in February, are expected to surge by 2% in March. Analysts expect US export prices to jump 1.5% in March.

The markets today

Citigroup in focus today following the release of quarterly results

Context: Shares of Citigroup hit a new 52-week high on Tuesday after the bank posted better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter and recorded its strongest quarterly revenue in a decade.

Details: Citigroup reported revenue, net of interest expense, at $24.63 billion, representing 14% year-over-year growth and coming in above market estimates of $23.53 billion. Excluding foreign exchange impacts, revenue climbed 11% in the quarter.

Net income surged 42% to $5.79 billion in the first quarter. This helped the bank report earnings of $3.06 per share, topping Wall Street expectations of $2.63 per share.

Citigroup saw strong growth across its segments in the first quarter, with services revenue up 17% to $6.1 billion and markets revenue rising 19% to $7.2 billion. Banking revenue grew by 15% to $1.8 billion, amid a 19% surge in investment banking revenue.

Wealth revenue grew 11% to $3.1 billion, while US consumer cards revenue gained 4% to $4.8 billion during the quarter.

Trading revenue also saw sharp growth last quarter, benefitting from increased volatility in markets due to the US-Iran conflict.

Net interest income grew 12%, while non-interest revenue rose 17%, signalling growth across all five core divisions and legacy franchises.

Citigroup reaffirmed its 2026 forecast, projecting net interest income, excluding markets, to grow by 5%-6%.

How shares responded: Citigroup’s shares rose 2.6% to close at $129.58 on Tuesday following the release of quarterly results. The stock has jumped around 21% over the past month.

What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring developments related to the US-Iran war as well as any monetary policy moves by the Federal Reserve.

Other Markets: European indices closed higher on Tuesday, with the FTSE 100, DAX 40, CAC 40 and STOXX Europe 600 Index up by 0.25%, 1.27%, 1.12% and 0.99%, respectively.

The news shaping the markets

Russia’s military forces announced fresh attacks on settlements in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. The news sent the USD/RUB pair lower in forex trading this morning.

Japan’s Reuters Tankan index for manufacturers declined to 7.0 in April from 18.0 in the previous month. The index recording its biggest monthly decline since January 2023 lent support to the USD/JPY forex pair.

South Korea’s unemployment rate fell to 2.7% in March from 2.9% in the previous month. The jobless rate declining to its lowest level since October 2025 sent the USD/KRW pair lower in forex trading this morning.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) said that crude oil inventories surged by 6.10 million barrels in the week ended April 10, after a gain of 3.72 million barrels in the previous week, which exerted pressure on WTI crude oil prices.

Argentina’s consumer prices jumped 3.4% in March, accelerating from 2.9% in the previous month. The latest reading coming in above market estimates of 3% sent the USD/ARS pair higher in forex trading this morning.

What else to watch today

Turkey’s budget balance (1200 UAE Time), Eurozone’s industrial production (1300 UAE Time), India’s unemployment rate (1430 UAE Time), Brazil’s retail sales (1600 UAE Time) and business confidence (1800 UAE Time), Canada’s manufacturing sales (1630 UAE Time) and wholesale sales (1630 UAE Time) as well as US MBA mortgage applications (1500 UAE Time), NAHB housing market index (1800 UAE Time), EIA crude oil stocks change (1830 UAE Time) and Fed Beige book (2200 UAE Time).