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Tuesday, June 16, 2026
What’s happening: The US dollar edged higher this morning after recording losses in the previous session.
What happened: An agreement to end the US-Iran war provided a boost to overall market sentiment, weighing on safe-haven assets like the greenback in Monday’s session.
Investors turned their focus to interest rate decisions by the central banks of Japan, Australia, the UK and the US.
Why it matters: US President Donald Trump said a preliminary deal to end its conflict with Iran had been signed, while providing no further details of the agreement.
The announcement sent crude oil prices sharply lower, easing inflation concerns. The deal would extend the ceasefire by another 60 days and is hoped to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed since February.
The forex market responded much less than other markets to the news of the deal, with investors awaiting interest rate decisions by central banks this week. The Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia are scheduled to announce their monetary policy today. Markets widely expect the BoJ to hike interest rates and the RBA to keep its benchmark rates unchanged after three hikes.
The Federal Reserve and Bank of England are scheduled to announce their decisions later this week. Markets expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, rose around 0.1% to 99.68 this morning. The index has gained around 2% since the beginning of the US-Iran conflict at the end of February.
The EUR/USD forex pair fell slightly to 1.1587 this morning, while the GBP/USD pair declined about 0.1% to 1.3401.
The AUD/USD forex pair fell around 0.2% to 0.7059 ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision.
The USD/JPY pair slipped 0.1% to 160.19 as the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates to a 31-year high.
What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring announcements related to the US-Iran deal.
The Federal Reserve will hold its first monetary policy meeting under its new chief Kevin Warsh on Wednesday. The latest inflation report came in hotter than expectations with the war driving energy prices higher.
Context: The CSI 300 index rose this morning as investors assessed a basket of major economic reports.
Details: Data released this morning showed that China’s retail sales declined 0.6% year-over-year in May. This marked the first decline in December 2022 and followed 0.2% growth in the previous month. The figure missed market estimates of a flat reading.
China’s industrial production grew 4.5% year-over-year in May, accelerating from 4.1% in April, which was the weakest growth since July 2023. The latest reading topped market expectations of 4.3%.
China’s new home prices declined 3.5% year-over-year in May, in-line with April’s pace. The latest reading signalled the 35th consecutive month of decline, highlighting continuous weakness in the property sector.
China’s urban unemployment rate eased to 5.1% in May from the previous month’s 5.2%, hitting the lowest reading since December 2025.
Fixed-asset investment fell by 4.1% year-over-year in the January-May period, higher than market estimates of a 2.0% decline and compared to the 1.6% contraction recorded during the first four months of 2026.
China’s CSI 300 Index rose 0.16% to 4,899.70 this morning, while SSE Composite Index rose 0.12% to 4,101.52. Meanwhile, the USD/CNY forex pair added around 0.1% to reach 6.7615 this morning.
What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring developments related to the US-Iran peace deal.
Data on China’s FDI will be released later today. Foreign direct investment inflows into China, which declined 10.3% year-over-year to 287.7 billion yuan during the first four months of 2026, are expected to fall by 11% in May.
Other Markets: US trading indices closed higher on Monday, with the Dow Jones index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 up by 0.92%, 1.65% and 3.07%, respectively.
Ukraine hit two bridges that connected Crimea with the Russian occupied Ukrainian territory of Kherson. The news sent the USD/RUB pair higher in forex trading this morning.
India’s passenger vehicle sales jumped 25.3% year-over-year to 379,764 units in May. This representing a significant acceleration from the previous month’s 2.5% exerted pressure on the USD/INR forex pair.
New Zealand’s annual food inflation rose to 3.2% in May from 2.6% in April. This being the first acceleration in three months sent the NZD/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.
South Korea’s export prices jumped 46.9% year-over-year in May. This was the steepest growth since March 1998 and exerted pressure on the USD/KRW forex pair.
Canada’s housing starts declined 6.1% to an annual rate of 261,400 in May, which sent the USD/CAD pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Italy’s inflation rate (1200 UAE Time), Eurozone’s ZEW economic sentiment index (1300 UAE Time), labour cost index (1300 UAE Time) and wage growth (1300 UAE Time), Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index (1300 UAE Time) and ZEW current conditions (1300 UAE Time), Brazil’s retail sales (1600 UAE Time), US ADP employment change weekly (1615 UAE Time), building permits (1630 UAE Time), housing starts (1630 UAE Time), export prices (1630 UAE Time), import prices (1630 UAE Time) and NY Fed services activity index (1630 UAE Time), Redbook index (1655 UAE Time) as well as Canada’s foreign securities purchases (1630 UAE Time).
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