Gold edges higher as Iran, Israel halt attacks

Today’s headlines

What’s happening: Gold prices rose this morning as investors monitored the latest developments in the Middle East conflict.

What happened: Iran and Israel agreed to pause attacks following an appeal from US President Donald Trump, easing concerns around elevated inflation due to higher energy prices.

Weakness in the US dollar lent further support to gold prices during the session.

Why it matters: US President Donald Trump said Iran and Israel had agreed to an immediate ceasefire with final talks related to ending the conflict moving forward. Iran warned, however, that it would resume strikes in case Israel continues to attack Lebanon.

Israel had launched renewed strikes on Lebanon during the weekend, while Iran retaliated with missile strikes aimed at Israel. Trump also said final negotiations on peace deal were proceeding, but the ongoing blockade of Iranian ports by the US would not be lifted until both sides reach a final deal.

Even after the rise, gold prices remained close to their weakest level since late March as the US dollar rose following upbeat jobs data, reinforcing speculations of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates by the end of the year.

Weakness in the US dollar provided a further boost to gold prices, as a softer greenback makes metals cheaper for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell around 0.1% to 99.95 this morning.

Spot price for gold rose around 0.2% to $4,337.81 an ounce this morning.

In other metals trading, spot price for silver fell 0.6% to $67.7995 an ounce. Platinum prices slipped 0.1% to $1,759.90, while palladium rose 0.1% to $1,220.35 this morning.

What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring progress in negotiations related to the Middle East conflict.

Markets will also watch inflation rate figures, scheduled to be released by the US tomorrow. The annual inflation rate in the US, which rose to 3.8% in April, the highest level since May 2023, is expected to accelerate further to 4.2% in May. Producer prices in the US, which surged 1.4% month-over-month in April, are expected to rise by 0.7% in May.

Data on US CPI and PPI, due to be released later this week, will also remain in focus, with investors looking for fresh insights on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.

The markets today

The Australian dollar in focus today ahead of some major economic reports

Context: The Australian dollar gained versus the US dollar this morning as investors digested the latest economic data.

Details: Data released this morning showed that household confidence in Australia weakened further, with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index declining 3.5% to 80.6 in June. This marked the fourth decline this year.

Higher living costs weighed on households, while the temporary excise tax cut in fuel provided only short-lived relief.

Australia’s NAB business confidence index climbed to -14 in May from -24 in the previous month, recording its highest reading since February. However, confidence remained firmly negative, amid ongoing concerns over the economic outlook.

Meanwhile, global market sentiment received some boost from Iran and Israel agreeing to halt attacks.

Weakness in the US dollar lent further support to the AUD/USD forex pair. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell around 0.1% to 99.95 this morning.

The AUD/USD pair rose around 0.1% to 0.7049 this morning, while the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.45% to 8,586.50.

What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring developments related to the US-Iran conflict.

Data on building permits (0530 UAE Time) and private house approvals (0530 UAE Time) from Australia will be released tomorrow. Australia’s dwelling approvals are expected to decline 3.4% to a three-month low of 16,710 units in April, following a 10.5% plunge in March. Analysts expect private house approvals to fall by 1.0% to 10,088 units in April, compared to a 0.5% gain in the previous month.

Investors also awaited the upcoming monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia, due to be announced next week.

Other Markets: US trading indices closed mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 up by 0.30% and 1.58%, respectively, and the Dow Jones index down by 0.16%.

The news shaping the markets

Russia and Ukraine exchanged air attacks, shortly after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held meeting with European leaders. The news sent the USD/RUB pair lower in forex trading this morning.

The Philippines’ unemployment rate eased to 4.7% in April from 5.0% in the previous month. The unemployment rate remaining above than the 4.1% level recorded in April 2025 lent support to the USD/PHP forex pair.

Ireland’s AIB construction PMI rose to 50.2 in May from 47.1 in April, which sent the EUR/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.

UK’s retail sales jumped by 3.7% year-over-year in May, topping market estimates of a 0.6% gain. This being the strongest rise since April 2025 lent support to the GBP/USD forex pair.

South Korea’s economy grew by 1.8% in the first quarter, higher than the preliminary reading of 1.7% and recovering from a 0.1% decline in the fourth quarter. This being the strongest growth since the first quarter of 2021 sent the USD/KRW pair lower in forex trading this morning.

What else to watch today

South Africa’s GDP growth rate (1300 UAE Time), US NFIB business optimism index (1400 UAE Time), ADP employment change (1615 UAE Time), balance of trade (1630 UAE Time), Redbook index (1655 UAE Time), existing home sales (1800 UAE Time), wholesale inventories (1800 UAE Time) and EIA short-term energy outlook (2000 UAE Time), Mexico’s inflation rate (1600 UAE Time) and PPI (1600 UAE Time), Canada’s balance of trade (1630 UAE Time), as well as Argentina’s industrial production (2300 UAE Time).