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Thursday, October 01, 2026
What’s happening: Brent crude prices traded lower this morning, after recording sharp gains in September.
What happened: Investors monitored the ongoing US-Iran talks and assessed the outlook for crude exports from the Middle East.
Markets also responded to the latest crude oil stockpiles data released by the US EIA on Wednesday.
Why it matters: Crude oil shipments from the Middle East came close to pre-conflict levels after Saudi Arabia restored almost half the capacity of its East-West pipeline and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz rose to 13.2 million barrels per day (bpd).
Gulf oil exports have rebounded to 23.3 million bpd over the past week, coming close to the 2025 average levels, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.
The Trump administration recently ordered another major release of emergency reserves, easing supply concerns.
Investors remained cautious about the durability of the supply recovery in the absence of a deal to end the conflict between the US and Iran, both of which aim to get full control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, the OPEC+ is projected to keep its November production targets unchanged at its meeting this weekend.
Data released by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that US crude inventories jumped 0.922 million barrels to 427.3 million barrels in the week ended September 25, compared to market expectations of a decline of 0.3 million barrels.
Gasoline stockpiles contracted by 1.684 million barrels to 204.4 million barrels, versus market estimates of a drawdown of 0.5 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles declined by 2.251 million barrels to 105.2 million barrels, more than market expectations of 0.2 million barrels.
Strength in the US dollar weighed on oil prices as a higher greenback makes commodities more expensive for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, gained over 0.1% to 101.58 this morning.
Spot price for Brent crude declined 0.4% to $97.16 per barrel this morning, after rising around $1 per barrel in the previous session. Brent rose around 14% last month, its biggest since July.
Spot price for WTI crude oil slipped 0.5% to $88.97 per barrel, following a 5% gain in September.
In other commodities trading, natural gas declined 1.1% to $2.992 and heating oil fell 0.5% to $4.6633. Gasoline bucked the trend, rising 0.4% to $3.2738.
What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring talks between the US and Iran.
Data on EIA natural gas stocks change (1830 UAE Time) will be released today. US natural gas stockpiles, which grew by 53 billion cubic feet in the week ended September 18, are expected to surge by 63 billion cubic feet in the latest week.
Context: London’s FTSE 100 fell on Wednesday, recording losses for the third straight session, but notching a quarterly gain.
Details: Data released on Wednesday showed that the UK’s current account deficit shrank to £19.9 billion in the second quarter from £21.1 billion in the previous quarter. The figure was better than market estimates of £24.7 billion.
The UK economy grew by 0.5% in the second quarter, better than the preliminary estimate of 0.4%. However, this marked a deceleration from the first quarter’s 0.6% growth.
Business investment in the UK climbed 1.8% in the three months to June, better than the preliminary reading of 1.7% but marking a significant slowdown from the previous quarter’s 3% surge.
The FTSE 100 fell 0.29% to close at 10,606.00, recording losses for a third straight session. The index ended September down around 2%. The index still recorded gains of 1.1% in the third quarter, extending the index winning streak to seven quarters, the longest in over two decades.
Banks, energy and pharma stocks were among the weakest performers on Wednesday, with shares of HSBC, Barclays and Standard Chartered settling lower. Shares of AstraZeneca and GSK also fell during the session.
What to watch: Data on UK’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI (1230 UAE Time) will be released today. Analysts expect the S&P Global UK manufacturing PMI to improve to 52.0 in September from 51.7 in August.
Other Markets: US trading indices closed mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones index and S&P 500 down by 0.86% and 0.25%, respectively, and the Nasdaq 100 up by 0.23%.
Russia announced the biggest attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since the spring. The news sent the USD/RUB forex pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Malaysia’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI declined to 49.9 in September from 50.2 in the previous month. The first contraction in manufacturing since May lent support to the USD/MYR forex pair.
Japan’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.1 in September from 54.9 in the previous month. This being the softest expansion in the manufacturing sector since March sent the USD/JPY pair higher in forex trading this morning.
India’s external debt grew by $15.4 billion in the quarter, hitting a record high of $778.2 billion at the end of June, which lent support to the USD/INR forex pair.
Thailand’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI climbed to 54.3 in September from 53.8 in the previous month. Despite this being the strongest reading since December 2025, the USD/THB pair rose in forex trading this morning.
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