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Wednesday, September 30, 2026
What’s happening: Japan’s stocks traded higher this morning, ending a two-day decline.
What happened: Crude oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday amid easing supply concerns, lending support to Japanese stocks.
Investors also responded to the economic reports released this morning, which weighed slightly on sentiment.
Why it matters: Oil prices recorded sharp losses in Tuesday’s session, with WTI spot prices remaining comfortably below the key level of $90 per barrel amid signs of an improvement in crude flows after Saudi Arabia restored almost half the capacity of its East-West pipeline.
The Trump administration also ordered another major release of emergency reserves, easing supply concerns and exerting pressure on crude oil prices. However, uncertainties around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain, with the US and Iran failing to reach an agreement.
Data released this morning showed Japan’s retail sales growth decelerated to 2.7% year-over-year in August, from 3.7% in the previous month. Although the latest reading came in below market estimates 3.3%, it still marked the sixth straight month of growth in retail activity, aided by government measures to control cost of living.
Japan’s industrial production declined 1.7% in August, following a 0.2% contraction in the previous month. The figure also missed market estimates of 1.7% growth. Industrial output fell at the steepest pace since February, signalling weaker output across major manufacturing sectors due to soft export demand.
Tech stocks were among the top performers this morning, despite pressure from higher bond yields. Shares of Fujikura, Kioxia Holdings, Advantest and SoftBank Group recording gains.
Last week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reaffirmed their commitment to jointly address weakness in the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY forex pair fell around 0.5% to trade at 156.58 this morning.
The Nikkei 225 index jumped around 1.2% to trade at 66,263.54 this morning. The index is on course to closing the month almost flat.
What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring oil prices and Treasury yields.
Data on Tankan large manufacturers index (0350 UAE Time), Tankan large non-manufacturing index (0350 UAE Time) and S&P Global manufacturing PMI (0430 UAE Time) from Japan will be released today. The Bank of Japan’s sentiment index for large manufacturers, which surged to 22 in the second quarter from 17 in the previous quarter, is expected to rise further to 25 in the third quarter.
Analysts expect Japan’s non-manufacturing PMI to decline to 36 points in the third quarter from 37 points in the second quarter. The S&P Global Japan manufacturing PMI is projected to fall to 54.1 in September from 54.9 in August.
Context: The Australian dollar fell versus the US dollar this morning as investors digested the latest economic data.
Details: Data released this morning showed that Australia’s annual inflation rate rose to 4.0% in August from 3.5% in the previous month. This was the highest rate in three months and remained above the central bank’s 2%-3% target range.
Australia’s private sector house approvals surged 3.7% to 10,885 units in August, recovering from July’s 1.9% decline. Private sector credit climbed 0.6% in August, the same pace as in the previous month, but above market estimates of a 0.5% gain.
Weakness in the US dollar lent some support to the AUD/USD forex pair this morning. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, slipped to 101.33.
The AUD/USD forex pair fell around 0.3% to trade at 0.6969 this morning. The S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.9% to trade at 8,791.30 this morning but remained on course to recording its first monthly decline in six months.
What to watch: Data on S&P Global manufacturing PMI (0300 UAE Time) and balance of trade (0530 UAE Time) from Australia will be released on Thursday. Analysts expect Australia’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI to decline to 49.3 in September from 52.0 in the previous month, which would be the manufacturing sector’s first negative reading since March. Australia’s trade surplus, which shrank to A$1.93 billion in July from A$2.34 billion in the previous month, is expected to expand to A$2.00 billion in August.
Other Markets: US trading indices closed mixed on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones index and S&P 500 down by 0.26% and 0.17%, respectively, and the Nasdaq 100 up by 0.21%.
US officials said that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev held “constructive” discussions on a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine war. The news sent the USD/RUB forex pair slightly lower in forex trading this morning.
Singapore’s bank loans surged to a new record high of S$966.4 billion in August from S$939.1 billion in the previous month, exerting pressure on the USD/SGD forex pair.
New Zealand’s ANZ business outlook index fell to 51.9 in September from 53.7 in the previous month. This being the lowest level since June sent the NZD/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Eurozone’s economic sentiment indicator declined to 97.9 in September from 98.4 in the previous month. The latest reading coming in below market estimates of 99.0 exerted pressure on the EUR/USD forex pair.
China’s official NBS manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in the previous month. Despite this being in-line with expectations, the USD/CNY pair rose in forex trading this morning.
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