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Friday, October 02, 2026
What’s happening: Bitcoin prices traded higher this morning, after recording sharp gains in the third quarter.
What happened: A rally in the US Treasury bond market provided a boost to the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
The recent moves by the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) sent bitcoin prices higher in the third quarter, despite the failure of the Clarity Act.
Why it matters: Rising US Treasury yields sent bitcoin prices lower earlier on Thursday, eclipsing the positive momentum from Wednesday’s cooler inflation report. The Federal Reserve’s favoured inflation measure, core PCE, came in at 0.2% in August, softer than expectations of 0.3%, which eased speculations of the central bank hiking interest rates in October.
However, concerns around pricing pressure came back in focus after the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) reported that the US manufacturing remained in the expansion zone and the Prices Index surged to 77.9 in September from 71.1 in the previous month.
Mixed economic signals sent the benchmark 10-year yield down 6.5 bps, while the 30-year yield declined by 2.3bps.
Citigroup boosted its 12-month projections for bitcoin and ether, citing stronger crypto activity and a resumption of ETF inflows, from $82,000 to $113,000 and from $2,240 to $3,028, respectively.
Weakness in the US dollar provided further support to bitcoin prices as a softer greenback makes cryptos cheaper for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell around 0.1% to 102.05 this morning.
Bitcoin prices jumped 1.6% to trade at $84,830 this morning, after adding 43% in the third quarter. Ethereum prices rose 1% to $2,711.57 after jumping around 70% in the third quarter.
What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring the US dollar and Treasury yields.
The US is schedule to release its NFP (nonfarm payrolls) report today (1630 UAE Time). Analysts expect the US economy to add 90,000 jobs in September, following 162,000 job adds in the previous month. The US unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% in September.
Context: The Japanese yen gained versus the US dollar this morning as investors assessed the latest economic reports.
Details: The Japanese yen traded higher this morning, trimming the previous session’s losses, after data released this morning showed Tokyo’s core inflation accelerated to 2.7% year-over-year in September, from 1.8% in the previous month. The latest reading surpassed the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time in nine months.
Japan’s unemployment rate rose to 2.5% in August from July’s 12-month low and came in higher than market estimates of 2.4%.
Meanwhile, a summary of opinions from the BoJ’s latest meeting highlighted a shift in focus to controlling inflation, which triggered speculations of another interest rate hike this year.
The Japanese yen remained on course to recording a third straight weekly decline, due to strength in the US dollar and higher Treasury yields amid speculations of the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rates soon.
Weakness in the US dollar lent some support to the yen this morning. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell around 0.1% to 102.05.
The USD/JPY forex pair fell around 0.1% to 157.97 this morning, while the Nikkei 225 declined 0.9% to trade at 68,326.72.
What to watch: Data on S&P Global composite PMI (0430 UAE Time) and S&P Global services PMI (0430 UAE Time) from Japan will be released on Monday. Analysts expect Japan’s S&P Global composite PMI business activity index to decline to 52.5 in September from 53.5 in August, while the services PMI business activity index is projected to decline to 51.6 in September from 52.5 in the previous month.
Other Markets: US trading indices closed higher on Thursday, with the Dow Jones index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 up by 0.04%, 0.19% and 0.31%, respectively.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had “good ideas” for a mutually acceptable deal to end the war in Ukraine. The news sent the USD/RUB forex pair lower in forex trading this morning.
New Zealand’s ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index slipped to 97.6 in September, remaining below the neutral 100 level, which exerted pressure on the NZD/USD forex pair.
Canada’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI declined to 51.5 in September from 53 in the previous month. This being the weakest reading in six months sent the USD/CAD pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Eurozone’s unemployment rate came in unchanged at 6.4% in August, in-line with market estimates, which lent support to the EUR/USD forex pair.
UK’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.9 in September from 51.7 in the previous month. This being the 11th straight month of expansion in manufacturing activity sent the GBP/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.
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