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News
Friday, October 09, 2026
What’s happening: The US dollar traded lower this morning amid some easing in European yields.
What happened: The greenback fell this morning, after hovering near April 2025 highs amid speculations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.
Meanwhile, investors assessed the Fed Governor’s latest comments and US economic releases.
Why it matters: The euro recovered from lows after Eurozone government bond yields pulled back after rising sharply on higher energy prices.
France faces mounting debt and a political deadlock ahead of the 2027 Presidential election. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has also announced a snap general election following the rejection of housing relief measures by Congress.
Meanwhile, investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark interest rates unchanged this month and announce a hike in December.
Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting showed that most policymakers believe another rate would be needed before the end of the year.
US Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that further rate hikes were likely to bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target, while signalling some flexibility about timing.
On the economic front, initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 197,000 in the latest week, coming in slightly better than market estimates of 200,000. US wholesale inventories climbed 0.5% to $964.2 billion in August, lower than the 0.7% growth reflected by the advance estimate. This also marked a significant deceleration from July’s 1.4% gain.
Crude oil prices fell slightly after rising sharply earlier this week, easing inflation concerns, after President Donald Trump said the US is engaged in “productive” talks with Iran.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell more than 0.1% to 101.99 this morning.
The EUR/USD forex pair rose more than 0.1% to 1.1228, while the GBP/USD pair rose 0.1% to 1.3244. The US dollar rose versus the Japanese yen, sending the USD/JPY pair higher to 157.90.
What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring comments from Fed officials and the situation in the Middle East.
Data on Michigan consumer sentiment (1800 UAE Time) will be released today. Analysts expect the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index to decline to 47.6 in October from 48.1 in September. Year-ahead inflation expectations, which were confirmed at 4.6% in September, are expected to accelerate to 4.7% in October.
Context: Crude oil prices traded lower this morning as investors assessed comments from US President Donald Trump.
Details: The US developed plans for an intensive attack on Iran, which would last just three days but target the country’s energy infrastructure, missile and drone arsenals, as well as command centres.
Meanwhile, Trump said that the US was engaged in “productive” talks with Iran and would not attack the region before the midterm elections.
The US President also said that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had reached record highs, while reaffirming that the naval blockade on Iran’s ports would continue.
Markets remained concerned, however, about shipping risks through the key waterway, as Iran increased attacks on tankers over the past week.
Weakness in the US dollar lent some support to oil prices as a softer greenback makes commodities cheaper for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell more than 0.1% to 101.99 this morning.
Spot price for WTI crude oil fell around 0.5% to $90.11 per barrel this morning, while spot price for Brent crude declined 0.7% to $101.88 per barrel.
In other commodities trading, gasoline fell 0.8% to $3.2911, natural gas shed 1.1% to $3.134 and heating oil declined by 1% to trade at $4.8327.
What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on the US-Iran conflict and news of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Data on US Baker Hughes oil rig count (2100 UAE Time) will be released today. Crude oil rigs in the US rose to 456 in the week of October 2 from 455 in the previous week, while total rigs fell to 598 from 599 in the previous week.
Other Markets: US trading indices closed mostly lower on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down by 0.47% and 1.39%, respectively, and the Dow Jones index up by 0.10%.
Ukraine disclosed that it had received proposals from India, Turkiye, Egypt and the US to hold talks with Russia. The news sent the USD/RUB forex pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Japan’s household spending contracted by 3.1% year-over-year in August, compared to market estimates of a 3.6% decline. Personal spending falling for the ninth straight month lent support to the USD/JPY forex pair.
Chile’s annual inflation rate came in unchanged from the previous month at 4.1% in September, which sent the USD/CLP pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Germany’s new car registrations jumped 9.0% year-over-year to 256,774 units in September, driven by a 28.5% jump in private registrations, which lent support to the EUR/USD forex pair.
Taiwan’s trade surplus widened to $23.63 billion in September from $12.30 billion in the year-ago period. This being the largest surplus on record sent the USD/TWD pair lower in forex trading this morning.
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