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Trends & Analysis
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Gold prices ease after hitting record high

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Week Ahead Preview: 17th of February

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Europe stocks hit record high on strong earnings

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BRIC currencies mostly gain as US inflation rises

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GBP/USD price may rally to multi-week high

Trends & Analysis
News

Gold prices ease after hitting record high

News

Week Ahead Preview: 17th of February

News

Europe stocks hit record high on strong earnings

News

BRIC currencies mostly gain as US inflation rises

News

Refresh your portfolio with Coca-Cola?

News

GBP/USD price may rally to multi-week high

Asset Watch

Are the bulls in control of the S&P 500?

Tuesday, March 7, 2023

Despite higher interest rates and reaccelerating inflation, the S&P 500 has been resilient amid the challenging macroeconomic environment. And while intraday volatility has elicited wild swings, Stifel’s Chief Equity Strategist Barry Bannister believes the bears will be the ones mauled over the next several weeks. He wrote on Mar. 3:
“Some say it is a ‘bull trap’ but that misses major trades in a range-bound, decade-long channel. They can call it a bear-market rally, a bear trap, or call it a banana. We aren’t ignoring potential six-month 10%-15% rallies…
“We had forecast a 13% S&P 500 six-month-rally to 4,300 by April 2023, which is still our view.”
With the bulls in the minority, will the contrarian trade prove profitable for the optimists?
S&P 500 Stock Chart Trading View

S&P 500 seasonality turns bullish in mid-March and lasts until the end of April. As a result, the calendar is approaching a period where the bulls have the upper hand. Likewise, the S&P 500 rallied sharply from Mar. 15-29, 2022, and the fundamentals were highly uncertain back then.

More importantly, the index broke out above its declining resistance line in early January. After backtesting the move, the line became support, and the S&P 500 bounced on Mar. 2 and continued the momentum on Mar. 3. Therefore, the technicals remain constructive, and the bulls should be given the benefit of the doubt until this changes.

So, will seasonality rule the March and April months, or is this time different?


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