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AUD/USD edges lower amid mixed economic data

Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Today’s headlines

What’s happening: The Australian dollar fell against the US dollar this morning as investors digested the latest economic reports.

What happened: The AUD/USD forex pair snapped a two-day winning streak, with investors turning cautious on inflation concerns following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate hike.

Strength in the US dollar also exerted pressure on the Australian currency this morning.

Why it matters: Data released this morning showed that Australia’s Westpac–Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment declined 2.6% to a 10-month low of 90.5 in February, as inflation concerns and the first rate-hike in over two years exerted pressure on household finances.

Total dwelling approvals dipped 14.9% to a four-month low of 15,542 units in December following a 13.1% jump in the previous month, while private house approvals rose 0.4% to 9,847 units, easing from the previous month’s 0.8% growth. The latest reading signalled the second consecutive monthly growth, albeit at a slower pace.

On a positive note, Australia’s NAB business confidence index rose to 3 in January from 2 in the previous month. This marked the strongest reading since October 2025. The survey was conducted before the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 bps to 3.85% last week.

Strength in the US dollar also weighed on the AUD/USD forex pair. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, gained around 0.1% to 96.90 this morning.

The AUD/USD pair fell almost 0.1% to 0.7088 this morning, while the S&P/ASX 200 gained around 0.3% to trade at 8,892.80.

What to watch: Investors await the release of data on home loans (0430 UAE Time) and investment lending for homes (0430 UAE Time), scheduled for release on Wednesday. The value of new owner-occupier loan commitments for dwellings, which surged 4.7% to an over three-year high of A$58.2 billion in the third quarter, is expected to rise by 2% in the fourth quarter.

Analysts expect investment lending for homes in Australia to rise by 5% in the fourth quarter, easing from the previous quarter’s 17.6% growth. Data on consumer inflation expectations for February will be released on Thursday.

The markets today

Japan’s stocks in focus today ahead of some major economic reports

Context: Equity markets in Japan hit new record highs following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s victory in Sunday’s general election.

Details: The ruling coalition gained a two-thirds majority in the lower house, which gave Takaichi a solid mandate to pursue higher spending and tax cuts. She reiterated her plans to suspend the 8% sales tax on food.

Tech and AI-related stocks were among the top performers this morning, with notable gains coming from Fujikura, SoftBank Group, Tokyo Electron and Disco Corp. Major defence and consumer shares also recorded sharp gains during the session on optimism around a rise in defence spending and an overall boost to economic activity.

Data released on Monday showed that Japan’s service sector index fell to 47.6 in January from 47.7 in the previous month. The figure missed market estimates of 49.1 and was the weakest reading since August 2025. Japan’s current account surplus narrowed to ¥728.8 billion in December from ¥1,071.8 billion in the year-ago month and came in below market expectations of ¥1,060 billion.

Japan’s nominal wages climbed 2.4% year-over-year in December, versus the previous month’s 1.7% growth. However, the figure fell short of market estimates of 3% growth.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 2.77% to 57,926.07 this morning, while the broader Topix Index gained 2.07% to 3,861.86. Despite broader strength in the US dollar, the USD/JPY forex pair fell around 0.3% to 155.43.

What to watch: Data on PPI (0350 UAE Time), foreign bond investment (0350 UAE Time) and machine tool orders (1000 UAE Time) from Japan will be released on Thursday. Japan’s producer prices, which surged 2.4% year-over-year in December after a 2.7% jump in the previous month, are expected to rise by 2.3% in January.

Japan’s machine tool orders, which climbed by 10.6% year-over-year to ¥158,240 million in December, are expected to grow 9.5% in January.

Other Markets: European indices closed higher on Monday, with the FTSE 100, DAX 40, CAC 40 and STOXX Europe 600 Index up by 0.16%, 1.19%, 0.60% and 0.70%, respectively.

The news shaping the markets

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced plans to open up exports of its domestically manufactured weapons. The news sent the USD/RUB pair higher in forex trading this morning.


Singapore’s economy grew by 5% in 2025, slowing from the previous year’s 5.3% expansion, which lent support to the USD/SGD forex pair.


Mexico’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.79% in January from 3.69% in December, which sent the USD/MXN pair higher in forex trading this morning.


Chile’s trade surplus rose to $3.8 billion in January from $2.7 billion in the year-ago period, exerting pressure on the USD/CLP forex pair.


UK’s retail sales grew by 2.3% year-over-year in January, accelerating from a 1% gain in the previous month. However, the GBP/USD pair fell in forex trading this morning.

What else to watch today

Italy’s industrial production (1300 UAE Time), India’s M3 money supply (1530 UAE Time), Brazil’s PPI (1600 UAE Time), Mexico’s industrial production (1600 UAE Time), US MBA mortgage applications (1600 UAE Time), nonfarm payrolls (1730 UAE Time), unemployment rate (1730 UAE Time), EIA crude oil stocks change (1930 UAE Time) and monthly budget statement (2300 UAE Time), Russia’s balance of trade (1700 UAE Time) and business confidence (2000 UAE Time) as well as Canada’s building permits (1730 UAE Time) and the Bank of Canada’s summary of deliberations (2230 UAE Time).


© ADSS 2026


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