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News
Tuesday, February 24, 2026
What’s happening: The Australian dollar rose versus the US dollar this morning ahead of upcoming inflation data.
What happened: The AUD/USD traded near three-year highs with rising prospects of a hawkish policy outlook by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The forex pair rose despite strength in the US dollar this morning.
Why it matters: Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump raised tariffs on all nations from 10% to 15%, after the Supreme Court ruled his tariffs illegal. The decision provoked a furious response from the US President, who announced that the new tariffs would come into effect immediately.
He further threatened that countries that “plays games” with existing trade deals following the latest ruling by the Supreme Court would face higher duties.
The latest developments exerted pressure on the US dollar on Monday, providing a boost to the AUD/USD forex pair. Although the greenback recovered some losses this morning, investors remain sceptical of the impact of the latest tariff developments on the US economy.
Markets await Australia’s consumer price figures, scheduled for release on Wednesday, which are expected to show the annual inflation pace easing slightly to 3.7% in January, from 3.8% in the previous month.
Markets have fully priced in the RBA to hike its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% by June.
A rebound in the US dollar this morning weighed on the AUD/USD pair. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, edged higher to 97.77 this morning.
The AUD/USD forex pair rose around 0.2% to 0.7068 this morning, while the S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.1% to trade at 9,014.40.
What to watch: Data on inflation rate (0430 UAE Time) and construction work done (0430 UAE Time) will be released on Wednesday. Core inflation is projected to remain at 3.3%, which would be the fifth straight month above the RBA’s 2%-3% target range. Total construction work in Australia, which fell by 0.7% in the third quarter, is expected to rise by 0.8% in the fourth quarter.
Investors will continue monitoring tariff-related announcements by the US, which are expected to significantly impact the AUD/USD pair. RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s speech at a Melbourne University event on Wednesday will also remain in focus, as any hawkish remarks could provide a boost to the Australian currency.
Context: Crude oil prices rose this morning as investors monitored the outlook for a new round of talks between the US and Iran.
Details: Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said that Iran and the US will conduct a third round of nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva. The Trump administration wants Iran to give up its nuclear weapons programme.
US President Donald Trump warned of a “very bad day” for Iran in case it does not make a nuclear deal.
Concerns over a military conflict in the Middle East causing supply disruptions have provided support to crude oil prices in recent weeks.
Markets also remain concerned about renewed trade risks after Trump announced fresh tariffs on all nations.
Strength in the US dollar weighed on oil prices this morning, as a higher greenback makes commodities more expensive for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, rose slightly to 97.77.
Spot prices for WTI crude oil gained around 0.9% to trade at $66.82 a barrel this morning, while Brent prices jumped 0.9% to $71.71 a barrel.
In other energy trading, gasoline prices gained 0.6% to $2.2606, while natural gas climbed 0.4% to trade at $2.998 and heating oil prices rose 0.7% to $2.5372.
What to watch: Investors await the release of data on the EIA’s (Energy Information Administration) crude oil stockpile change (1930 UAE Time), gasoline stocks change (1930 UAE Time) and distillate inventory change (1930 UAE Time) from the US on Wednesday.
US crude oil inventories had declined by 9.014 million barrels in the week ended February 13, recording the largest drawdown in five months. US gasoline stockpiles fell by 3.213 million barrels in the week, while distillate stocks fell by 4.566 million barrels.
Other Markets: European indices closed lower on Monday, with the FTSE 100, DAX 40, ACC 40 and STOXX Europe 600 Index down by 0.02%, 1.06%, 0.22% and 0.45%, respectively.
Russia launched drone strikes on the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine. The news sent the USD/RUB pair lower in forex trading this morning.
The People’s Bank of China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the ninth month in a row, in-line with market estimates, exerting pressure on the USD/CNY forex pair.
South Korea’s producer prices surged 1.9% year-over-year in January, matching the previous month’s pace. This being the strongest gain since July 2024 sent the USD/KRW pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Peru’s economy grew by 3.2% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, slowing from 3.8% in the previous quarter, which lent support to the USD/PEN forex pair.
Mexico’s GDP grew by 0.9% in the fourth quarter, recovering from the 0.3% decline in the previous period, which sent the USD/MXN pair lower in forex trading this morning.
UK’s CBI distributive trades (1500 UAE Time), Brazil’s current account (1530 UAE Time) and foreign direct investment (1530 UAE Time), Mexico’s mid-month core inflation rate (1600 UAE Time), US ADP employment change weekly (1715 UAE Time), Canada’s manufacturing sales (1730 UAE Time), US Redbook index (1755 UAE Time), S&P/Case-Shiller home price (1800 UAE Time), FHFA house price index (1800 UAE Time), CB consumer confidence (1900 UAE Time), Richmond Fed manufacturing index (1900 UAE Time), wholesale inventories (1900 UAE Time), Dallas Fed services index (1930 UAE Time), and money supply (2200 UAE Time), as well as Argentina’s economic activity (2300 UAE Time).
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