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News
Monday, August 03, 2026
What’s happening: Crude oil traded lower this morning after climbing around 20% in July.
What happened: US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Washington will hold talks with Iran starting this afternoon.
The OPEC’s decision to increase output weighed on crude prices, which fell despite weakness in the US dollar.
Why it matters: While threatening that he was prepared for the biggest military attack since World War II, the US President announced a delay in fresh strikes on Iran. Key allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia, had been urging Washington to pursue a diplomatic solution.
Trump called for Iran to sign a peace agreement, aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
The latest developments eased concerns over supply disruptions through key waterways, despite continued geopolitical tensions.
Oil prices were also weighed down by seven members of OPEC+ (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman) agreeing to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) for September.
Oil prices declined despite weakness in the US dollar. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, edged lower to 95.98 this morning.
Spot price for Brent crude declined 6.88% to $82.96 per barrel this morning, while WTI crude oil fell 7.20% to $78.55 per barrel.
What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on the talks between the US and Iran.
The EIA’s (Energy Information Administration) data on crude oil stockpiles change will be released on Wednesday. Crude inventories in the US fell by 7.167 million barrels to 404.5 million barrels in the week ended July 24, much higher than market expectations for a drawdown of 1.3 million barrels.
Context: Equity markets in the US closed higher on Friday amid a rally in Amazon’s stock.
Details: Amazon reported better-than-expected sales and earnings for the second quarter, which sent the company’s stock higher by more than 15% on Friday. Amazon recorded its strongest cloud growth in over four years and increased its capital spending outlook for the year, providing a boost to equity markets.
The latest move in markets followed a rally on Thursday driven by Microsoft, which surged 16% following better-than-expected quarterly results. The recent recovery in markets came after tanking on Wednesday, when the Dow Jones index dipped more than 1,100 points to record its worst single-day decline since April 2025.
Meanwhile, Apple’s stock declined more than 7% on Friday despite upbeat sales and earnings, as the company’s guidance disappointed investors.
Data released on Friday showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index surged to 55.2 in July, versus a preliminary reading of 54.0.
The Dow Jones index jumped 276.93 points, or 0.53% to close at 52,485.03 on Friday, while the S&P 500 climbed 0.70% to 7,489.72. The Nasdaq 100 surged 0.6% to settle at 28,274.20.
What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on any announcements by the Federal Reserve, given rising speculations of an interest rate hike in September.
Data on S&P Global manufacturing PMI (1745 UAE Time), construction spending (1800 UAE Time) and ISM manufacturing PMI (1800 UAE Time) from the US will be released today. Analysts expect the S&P Global US manufacturing PMI to decline to 53.8 in July from 53.9 in the previous month. US construction spending, which rose by 0.1% to an annual rate of $2,210.2 billion in May, is expected to surge by 0.2% in June. The ISM manufacturing PMI for the US, which declined to 53.3 in June, is expected to rise to 54 in July.
Other Markets: European indices closed mixed on Friday, with the FTSE 100 and STOXX Europe 600 Index down by 0.27% and 0.12%, respectively, and the DAX 40 and CAC 40 up by 0.07% and 0.28%, respectively.
Ukraine launched hundreds of drones targeting infrastructure, while Russian ballistic missiles struck Kyiv. The news sent the USD/RUB pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Malaysia’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI came in unchanged from the previous month at 50.7 in July. However, business confidence declining to a three-month low lent support to the USD/MYR forex pair.
Thailand’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI surged to 54.2 in July from 53.6 in the previous month. Manufacturing activity growing at the highest rate since December 2025 sent the USD/THB pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Indonesia’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.2 in July from 46.9 in the previous month. Manufacturing PMI reaching its highest level since February exerted pressure on the USD/IDR forex pair.
Australia’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 52.0 in July from the preliminary reading of 51.7, which sent the AUD/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.
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