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What’s happening: Crude oil settled higher on Friday as investors digested the latest news related to tariffs and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
What happened: Recent reports signalled some progress in talks between US and Russia over ending the war in Ukraine.
Some de-escalation of trade tensions between the US and China also supported oil prices.
Why it matters: Oil prices declined sharply to a four-year low earlier this month after the Trump administration’s tariff announcements fuelled concerns over lower global demand.
China rolled back retaliatory tariffs on some US imports in a gesture to come to some agreement with US. However, Beijing knocked down claims made by US President Donald Trump about talks being ongoing.
Several OPEC+ members have reportedly suggested that the group could accelerate hikes in oil production for the second straight month in June.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff held a constructive meeting on Friday for ending the ongoing war with Ukraine. The ending of the conflict would result in a lifting of the sanctions on Russia, triggering higher crude supplies to the global markets.
Meanwhile, data released on Friday from Baker Hughes showed the number of oil-directed drilling rigs increased by two to 483 during the week ended April 25.
Brent crude futures gained 32 cents to close at $66.87 a barrel on Friday, while recording a weekly loss of 1.6%. WTI crude rose 23 cents to settle at $63.02 a barrel, down 2.6% in the week.
In other energy trading, gasoline settled at $2.1072 a gallon, while heating oil closed at $2.1123 a gallon and natural gas for April delivery at $2.937 per million British thermal units.
What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring announcements related to tariffs from the US and China. Ongoing talks between the US and Russia will also remain in focus.
Context: Equity markets in Asia settled on a mixed note on Friday as investors assessed news related to tariffs.
Details: Global investors remained concerned about US-China trade tensions despite Trump reaffirming that talks were ongoing and China denying holding any negotiations.
Meanwhile, profits of China’s industrial firms grew by 0.8% year-over-year to 1,509.36 billion yuan during the first quarter of the year, following a 0.3% decline in the first two months of 2025.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.9% to close at 35,705.74 on Friday, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to settle at 3,295.06 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.32% to reach 21,980.74.
India’s BSE Sensex bucked the trend and fell 0.74% to close at 79,212.53, with investor sentiment remaining subdued following tensions after a Pakistan-based terrorist group took credit for the terror attacks in Kashmir.
What to watch: Investors await the release of economic data on retail sales and industrial production from Japan on Wednesday, along with data on manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs from China.
Japan’s industrial production, which grew 2.3% in February, is expected to decline by 0.4% in March. Analysts expect retail sales in Japan to decline by 0.2% in March, following a 0.5% gain in February. China’s official NBS manufacturing PMI, which improved to 50.5 in March from 50.2 in the previous month, is expected to decline to 49.9 in April, while the official NBS non-manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 50.7 in April, from 50.8 in March.
Other Markets: US trading indices closed higher on Friday, with the Dow Jones index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 up by 0.05%, 0.74% and 1.14%, respectively.
North Korea confirmed sending military troops for Russia in the war with Ukraine. The news sent the RUB/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.
The International Monetary Fund said that it has temporarily suspended its Flexible Credit Line with Colombia, which exerted some pressure on the COP/USD forex pair.
Canada’s government budget surplus narrowed to C$7.6 billion in February, from C$8.3 billion in the year-ago month, sending the CAD/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Mexico’s economic activity fell by 0.7% year-over-year in February. This being the biggest decline since March 2024 exerted pressure on the MXN/USD forex pair.
Macau’s unemployment rate rose to 1.9% in the first quarter of 2025, compared to 1.8% in the previous period. However, the MOP/USD pair edged higher in forex trading this morning.
France’s unemployment benefit claims (1400 UAE Time) and jobseekers total (1400 UAE Time), UK’s CBI distributive trades (1400 UAE Time), India’s industrial production (1430 UAE Time) and manufacturing production (1430 UAE Time), Brazil’s current account (1530 UAE Time) and foreign direct investment (1530 UAE Time), Mexico’s balance of trade (1600 UAE Time) and unemployment rate (1600 UAE Time), Canada’s wholesale sales (1630 UAE Time), as well as US Dallas Fed manufacturing index (1830 UAE Time), 3-month bill auction (1930 UAE Time), 6-month bill auction (1930 UAE Time) and treasury refunding financing estimates (2300 UAE Time).
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