What’s happening: The EUR/USD forex pair gained on Monday, to begin a week of important economic reports and events.
What happened: Most major currencies remained range bound on Monday as investors refrained from making big moves ahead of important economic data releases.
The European currency also received some support from weakness in the US dollar.
Why it matters: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to testify before US lawmakers on Wednesday and Thursday. This will be keenly watched by investors, as it may provide further insights into when the US central bank may turn dovish this year.
Traders were earlier expecting the Fed to announce significant interest rate cuts by March. However, strength in the US labour market and sticky inflation have caused the central bank to delay rate cuts. Markets are now expecting the first rate cut to come in June and project three or four cuts of 25 bps to be announced this year.
The US NFP (nonfarm payrolls) data is scheduled to be released on Friday. Markets are expecting an addition of 200,000 jobs in February, following a gain of 353,000 in the prior month.
The greenback remained under pressure on Monday, lending some support to the EUR/USD forex pair. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell slightly to 103.83.
The ECB (European Central Bank) is scheduled to meet on Thursday, with markets expecting no change in interest rates in this session.
The EUR/USD forex pair gained more than 0.1% to 1.0856 on Monday. The GBP/USD added around 0.3% to reach 1.2692, ahead of the British budget due to be released on Wednesday.
The AUD/USD moved lower by around 0.2% to 0.6510, as investors waited for the Australian GDP report, scheduled for release on Wednesday.
The USD/JPY forex pair gained around 0.3% to 150.53.
What to watch: Investors await the release of economic data on services PMI, composite PMI and PPI from the Eurozone on Tuesday. The HCOB flash Eurozone services PMI is expected to rise to 50 in February, from 48.4 in January, while the composite PMI is projected to increase to 48.9 in February, from 47.9 a month ago.
Analysts expect industrial producer prices in the Eurozone to increase by 0.4% in January compared to a 0.8% decline in December.
Context: Bitcoin prices rose sharply on Monday, breaching the $67,000 mark during the session.
Details: The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation climbed by around 7% to surpass the $67,000 level on Monday, moving closer to the record high of about $69,000 recorded in November 2021.
The surge in the cryptocurrency was driven by upbeat demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds). Investments of around $7.35 billion have been made since the launch of US-listed Bitcoin ETFs in January, with big asset managers, including BlackRock and Fidelity Investments, making the major contributions.
Although the current crypto market’s total market cap surged to around $2.5 trillion on Monday, the figure is well below the record high of over $3 trillion recorded in late 2021.
What to watch: Investors will watch the Bitcoin halving, set for April, when the mining reward is cut in half. Investors will also continue monitoring monetary policy announcements by major central banks around the world.
Other Markets: US trading indices closed lower on Monday, with the Dow Jones index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down by 0.25%, 0.12% and 0.42%, respectively.
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, ruled out peace talks with the current Ukrainian leadership, stating that Ukraine is part of Russia. The news sent the RUB/USD slightly lower in forex trading this morning.
China’s Caixin general composite PMI came in unchanged at 52.5 in February. Manufacturing activity remaining in the expansion zone for the fourth straight month lent support to the CNY/USD forex pair.
Singapore’s S&P Global PMI rose to 56.8 in February, versus January’s three-month low of 54.7. However, the SGD/USD pair remained flat in forex trading this morning.
Japan’s au Jibun Bank services PMI was revised upward to 52.9 in February, from a preliminary reading of 52.5. The country’s services activity expanding for the 18th straight month lent support to the JPY/USD forex pair.
UK’s retail sales grew by 1% year-over-year in February, easing from a 1.4% rise in January. The latest reading also fell short of market estimates of 1.5% growth, which sent the GBP/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Russia’s composite PMI and services PMI, South Africa’s S&P Global PMI and GDP growth rate, France’s industrial production, composite PMI and services PMI, Spain’s composite PMI and services PMI, Italy’s gross domestic product, composite PMI and services PMI, Germany’s composite PMI and services PMI, UK’s new car registrations, composite PMI and services PMI, Brazil’s producer price inflation, composite PMI, services PMI and Central Bank of Brazil focus market readout, US Redbook index, S&P Global composite PMI, S&P Global services PMI, factory orders, RealClearMarkets/TIPP economic optimism index, Logistics Manager’s Index and ISM services PMI, Canada’s composite PMI and services PMI, as well as Turkey’s total vehicle sales.