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Asset Watch
Wednesday, 10 September 2025
Markets are focused on the upcoming US CPI data for August, one of the most important releases ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on September 17. Inflation is expected to show a notable increase, largely driven by higher commodity prices following the tariffs imposed by President Trump on US trading partners in early August. Commodities make up about 20% of the inflation basket.
That said, other factors could offset this pressure, including easing housing costs (which account for more than 30% of the inflation basket), lower energy prices, and declining wage growth.
Alongside CPI, investors will also be watching the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for September. Sentiment is expected to weaken further as higher commodity prices weigh on consumers’ purchasing power.
The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 2%, following recent Governing Council comments favoring a wait-and-see approach, after the trade agreement with the US that avoided a trade war between both sides.
Supporting this stance is the slight rise in annual inflation (from 2.0% in July to 2.1% in August) which does not yet justify further rate cuts.
Investors will closely follow the ECB President’s press conference, scheduled 30 minutes after the decision, for insights into whether the rate-cutting cycle has ended and if policy has reached a neutral level, or whether more cuts remain possible before year-end.
Since July 24, EUR/USD has corrected its earlier uptrend and entered a sideways move, forming lower highs and higher lows. The pair has repeatedly failed to close below the 1.1570 –1.1860 trading zone, suggesting a potential move toward the high end of the mentioned zone.
A daily close above 1.1860 would suggest a bullish resumption, possibly toward 1.2113. in this case the psychological resistance level at 1.2000 should be monitored.
A successful daily close below 1.1570 could shift momentum toward the downside, potentially towards 1.1176. In this scenario, support levels at 1.1510 and 1.1344 should be closely watched.
Chart Source: ADSS Platform
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