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Asset Watch
Wednesday, October 4, 2023
The US dollar experienced a decline following the release of positive US labor data, revealing the resilience of the US labor market. In the previous week, the dollar had been on an upward trajectory with markets anticipating a 25-basis point interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve at its November meeting. There is now a 50% expectation for this increase.
However, today’s dollar prices were impacted by uncertainty surrounding future US policies. This uncertainty arose after the dismissal of the current Speaker of the US House of Representatives by the Republican Party, potentially paving the way for more extremist candidates within the party to assume the position. This development raises the likelihood of disagreement between the two parties in Congress and the potential for a government shutdown, which could, in turn, affect US consumer spending levels.
Markets are currently awaiting various economic indicators and speeches. This includes private sector jobs data, the US Purchasing Managers’ Index for the services sector in September, speeches by Federal Reserve member Mr. Bowman and European Central Bank President Ms. Christine Lagarde. Moreover, the market is keenly watching for the speech by the Federal Reserve Chairman and the US non-farm payrolls data at the end of the week. It’s important to note that if the data comes in higher than expected, it could increase the possibility of an interest rate hike and vice versa.
Chart source ADSS Platform
At the start of the week the EUR/USD broke below the Jan 6 low located at 1.0483. The price retreated and tested its lowest level yesterday at 1.0448 then rallied as some traders took profits. Today, the price traded higher and broke above the 1.0500 threshold.
A daily close above 1.0482 reflects a weaker bearish momentum and opens the door for the EUR/USD to rally towards 1.0789, That said, the resistance area located between 1.0629- 1.0657 should be considered.
On the other hand, a daily close below 1.0482 signals a strong bearish momentum which could send the price even lower towards 1.0223. However, the support levels located at 1.0364 and 1.0290 should be watched closely.
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