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Friday, November 21, 2025
What’s happening: Gold prices remained volatile this morning but held below the key $4,100 resistance level.
What happened: US data released on Thursday showed upbeat NFP (nonfarm payrolls) figures, lowering speculations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.
Weakness in the US dollar provided support to gold prices.
Why it matters: The much-awaited report from the US Labor Department, which was delayed due to the Federal government shutdown, showed that nonfarm payrolls jumped by 119,000 in September. This followed a decline of 4,000 in August and sharply higher than market estimates of 50,000.
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.2% to $36.67 in September.
Despite the gains, the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, from 4.3% in the previous month, surpassing market estimates of 4.3%. The latest release marked the highest reading since October 2021.
With positive NFP data, investors lowered their speculations of the Fed cutting its benchmark interest rates in December. Gold, which is a non-yielding asset, generally sees higher demand in a low-rate environment.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the cancellation of the October jobs report, which would be combined with data for November and released on December 16.
Weakness in the US dollar lent support to gold prices, as a softer greenback makes metals cheaper for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, edged lower to 100.14 this morning.
Gold prices declined by 0.14% to $4,054.30 this morning, after settling lower by 0.6% on Thursday. The yellow metal has surged around 55% so far this year, reaching a record high of $4,381.22 on October 20.
In other metals trading, silver prices fell 1.80% to $49.395 an ounce, while copper slipped to $4.9685. Platinum added 0.5% to reach $1,524.5, while palladium rose by 0.4% to $1,392.50.
What to watch: Investors will continue monitoring comments from Fed officials to gain further insight into their future monetary policy.
Analysts at UBS raised their 2026 mid-year gold forecast by $300 to $4,500 an ounce, amid projections of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, ongoing geopolitical concerns, and continued demand by central banks.
Context: The AUD/USD forex pair rose this morning as investors digested the latest economic reports.
Details: Data released this morning showed that the S&P Global Australia manufacturing PMI jumped to 51.6 in November, from 49.7 in the previous month. Growth in manufacturing activity, after a month of contraction, was spurred by a rise in new orders for goods for the first time since August.
Australia’s services PMI business activity index jumped to 52.7 in November, from 52.5 in the previous month, signalling faster growth in the region’s service activity. The S&P Global composite PMI rose to 52.6 in November, from 52.1 in October, representing the 14th consecutive month of growth.
Weakness in the US dollar also lent support to the AUD/USD pair. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, edged lower to 100.14 this morning.
The AUD/USD forex pair gained around 0.1% to 0.6449 this morning, while the S&P/ASX 200 declined 1.49% to trade at 8,426.70.
What to watch: Investors await the release of economic data on inflation rate and construction work from Australia on Wednesday. The consumer price index climbed 1.3% in the third quarter, higher than market estimates of a 1.1% rise, while the annual CPI inflation rate accelerated to 3.2%, from the previous month’s 2.1%.
Total construction work in Australia, which surged 3.0% in the second quarter after a decline of 0.3% in the previous quarter, is expected to rise by 0.1% in the third quarter.
Other Markets: US trading indices closed lower on Thursday, with the Dow Jones index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down by 0.84%, 1.56% and 2.38%, respectively.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office announced receiving a draft plan from the US to end the ongoing war with Russia. The news sent the RUB/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.
Singapore’s economy grew by 4.2% year-over-year in the third quarter, decelerating from the previous quarter’s 4.7%. The latest reading being above market expectations lent support to the SGD/USD forex pair.
Japan’s S&P Global services PMI came in unchanged at 53.1 in November. Continued expansion in the services sector sent the JPY/USD higher in forex trading this morning.
New Zealand’s trade deficit shrank to NZ$1.5 billion in October from NZ$1.65 billion in the year-ago month, lending support to the NZD/USD forex pair.
South Korea’s producer prices surged by 1.5% year-over-year in October, accelerating from the prior month’s 1.2%. However, the KRW/USD pair edged higher in forex trading this morning.
UK’s retail sales (1100 UAE Time), public sector net borrowing (1100 UAE Time), S&P Global manufacturing PMI (1330 UAE Time), S&P Global services PMI (1330 UAE Time) and S&P Global composite PMI (1330 UAE Time), France’s business confidence (1145 UAE Time), business climate indicator (1145 UAE Time), HCOB composite PMI (1215 UAE Time), HCOB manufacturing PMI (1215 UAE Time) and HCOB services PMI (1215 UAE Time), Germany’s HCOB manufacturing PMI (1230 UAE Time), HCOB composite PMI (1230 UAE Time) and HCOB services PMI (1230 UAE Time), Eurozone’s HCOB composite PMI (1300 UAE Time), HCOB manufacturing PMI (1300 UAE Time) and HCOB services PMI (1300 UAE Time), India’s foreign exchange reserves (1530 UAE Time), Mexico’s economic activity (1600 UAE Time) and GDP growth rate (1600 UAE Time), Canada’s new housing price index (1730 UAE Time) and retail sales (1730 UAE Time), as well as US S&P Global composite PMI (1845 UAE Time), S&P Global manufacturing PMI (1845 UAE Time), S&P Global services PMI (1845 UAE Time), Michigan consumer sentiment (1900 UAE Time), Michigan consumer expectations (1900 UAE Time), Michigan current conditions (1900 UAE Time), Michigan inflation expectations (1900 UAE Time), wholesale inventories (1900 UAE Time), Baker Hughes oil rig count (2200 UAE Time) and Baker Hughes total rigs count (2200 UAE Time).
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