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News
Tuesday, September 30, 2025
What’s happening: Gold prices rose to record highs on Monday with growing safe-haven demand.
What happened: Expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and concerns around the US dollar supported gold.
Festive demand from India, stock market volatility and fears of a potential government shutdown in the US provided a further boost to gold prices.
Why it matters: Gold has surged more than 43% year to date mainly due to geopolitical concerns. Tariff announcements and war have supported the yellow metal.
Earlier this month, the US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rates for the first time since December 2024. Policymakers signalling more rate cuts ahead triggered more gold buying. This is because a low-rate environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding yellow metal.
The personal consumption expenditures index report released on Friday showed inflation coming in-line with expectations, raising prospects of rate cuts by the Fed at its upcoming policy meetings this year.
Weakness in the US dollar lent further support to gold prices, as a softer greenback makes metals cheaper for foreign currency holders. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell around 0.2% on Monday.
Investors are closely monitoring the risk of a government shutdown in the US, which could delay major data releases, including the much-awaited NFP (nonfarm payrolls) report.
With the Indian festive season of Diwali approaching, consumer demand in the global market has risen sharply.
In other metals trading, silver prices rose to $47.016 per ounce and platinum climbed to $1,632.3. Palladium bucked the trend and settled lower at $1,291.00.
What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on negotiations related to the US government slowdown. The release of the NFP report, due this Friday, will also remain in focus. The US economy, which added 22,000 jobs in August, is expected to add 50,000 jobs in September.
Context: The JPY/USD forex pair fell this morning as investors assessed the latest economic data.
Details: Data released on Tuesday showed retail sales in Japan surprisingly declined by 1.1% year-over-year in August, following 0.4% growth in the previous month. The figure missed market estimates of a 1% gain. The region’s retail sales recorded the first annualised decline since February 2022, with sluggish growth in wages weighing on consumer purchasing power.
Japan’s industrial production also contracted by 1.2% in August, the same pace as in the previous month. This was steeper than market expectations of a 0.8% decline. Industrial production has been constrained due to weak demand and US trade concerns.
Strength in the US dollar also weighed on the JPY/USD pair. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, rose 0.1% to 97.99 this morning.
The USD/JPY forex pair rose around 0.1% to 148.69 this morning, while the Nikkei 225 fell more than 0.1% to 44,991.62.
What to watch: Data on the Tankan large manufacturers index (0350 UAE Time), Tankan large non-manufacturing index (0350 UAE Time) and S&P Global manufacturing PMI (0430 UAE Time) from Japan will be released on Wednesday.
The Bank of Japan’s index for large manufacturers, which rose to 13 in the second quarter, is expected to gain further to 15 in the third quarter. The non-manufacturing PMI is projected to remain at 34 points. Analysts expect the S&P Global Japan manufacturing PMI to fall to 48.4 in September, from 49.7 in the previous month.
Other Markets: European indices closed higher on Monday, with the FTSE 100, DAX 40, CAC 40 and STOXX Europe 600 Index up by 0.16%, 0.02%, 0.13% and 0.18%, respectively.
Russia said that its military forces had gained control of a village in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. The news sent the RUB/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.
The Philippines’ producer prices rose by 0.57% year-over-year in August following a 0.12% decline in the previous month, which exerted pressure on the PHP/USD forex pair.
Australia’s private sector credit rose by 0.6% in August, in-line with market estimates, which sent the AUD/USD pair higher in forex trading this morning.
New Zealand’s ANZ Business Outlook Index came in at 49.6 for September, almost unchanged from the five-month high of 49.7 recorded in August, which lent support to the NZD/USD forex pair.
South Korea’s retail sales declined 2.4% in August, after a 2.7% gain in the previous month, sending the KRW/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Italy’s PPI (1200 UAE Time), inflation rate (1300 UAE Time) and industrial sales (1400 UAE Time), Spain’s current account (1230 UAE Time), China’s current account (1300 UAE Time), India’s government budget value (1430 UAE Time) and external debt (1600 UAE Time), Brazil’s gross debt to GDP (1530 UAE Time), nominal budget balance (1530 UAE Time) and unemployment rate (1600 UAE Time), Germany’s inflation rate (1600 UAE Time), South Africa’s balance of trade (1600 UAE Time), as well as US Redbook index (1655 UAE Time), FHFA house price index (1700 UAE Time), CB consumer confidence (1800 UAE Time), JOLTs job quits (1800 UAE Time), Dallas Fed services index (1830 UAE Time), Dallas Fed services revenues index (1830 UAE Time), 52-week Bill auction (1930 UAE Time), quarterly grain stocks – corn (2000 UAE Time), quarterly grain stocks – soy (2000 UAE Time) and quarterly grain stocks – wheat (2000 UAE Time).
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