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Asset Watch

Gold Price Braces for US CPI Report

Tuesday, July 11, 2023

Gold Price – Chart and Analysis

• Gold price points higher on a weaker US dollar
• Gold may rally further, key tech levels to watch

The precious metal price has rallied due to the anticipated retreat of the US dollar, with DXY price printing today a two-month low at 101.67. Invstors have already priced in 25 basis point hike in the Fed’s July meeting while further rate hikes have been held off waiting for more clarity from the US economic data. Last Friday, the US job report showed a slight decrease in expected labour market growth 209K vs 225k while the government has reviewed the job numbers released since January 2023 till June reducing nearly 12% of the overall number.

 

Markets will focus this week on the US CPI report of June due tomorrow. It is expected that the headline CPI to fall from 4% in May to 3.1% in June thanks to lower energy costs while the core CPI to fall from 5.3% to 5% on the back of lower shelter and used car prices. Any higher-than-expected inflation numbers may slow the US dollar price retreat as it increases the likelihood of pricing in further rate hikes in the upcoming months.

Gold Daily Price Chart

 

Chart source: TradingView

I

On June 29, the gold price fell to a multi-month low at $1891/oz then corrected higher and developed an inverted head and shoulders pattern. If the price breaks and remains above the pattern’s neckline located at 1934 this could signal a possible rally towards 1974. That said, resistance levels residing at 1949 and 1960 should be kept in focus.

On the other hand, any failure in remaining above the mentioned neckline could encourage traders to press the price to revisit the support area 1916-1911. A daily close below this area, could send the price even lower towards 1890.


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