Asset Watch
Wednesday, 18 September 2024
Markets are gearing up for tonight’s big event, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, so here is everything you need to know about this risk event.
Rate decision: The Fed will kickstart its rate cut cycle tonight at 10:00 PM UAE time, with either 25 basis points or 50 basis points reduction. The market is currently split between those expecting a 25 bps cut and those predicting a 50 bps cut. It’s worth noting that the market has already priced in a more than 40 bps cut for this meeting, and some Fed members have hinted that the central bank may align with market expectations.
The rate decision’s potential effect: Should the Fed cut by a 50 bps, it could lead to an even weaker US dollar and slightly stronger gold and stock prices. On the other hand, if the Fed cuts by a 25 bps, the market’s reaction may hinge on Fed Chair Powell’s tone in his press conference taking place tonight at 10:30 PM UAE time. Any hint of possible bigger rate cuts before the end of the year could weigh on the US dollar and support the gold and stock prices. However, if Powell signals that the rate cut could maintain its current pace, we may see a drop in price in gold and stock prices and a stronger US dollar.
The Fed Dot Plot: The Fed will release its economic projections for the US GDP, unemployment and inflation, alongside the FOMC dot plot, which reflects the Fed members’ opinions on where interest rates might be in the short and the longer term, which could allow some investors to sync their views with the FOMC members’ view.
Chart Source: ADSS Platform
On September 12, the gold price broke above the upper line of the bullish rectangle located at 2530 and now the precious metal price appears to be heading for a test of the high end of the current trading zone between 2470 and 2600.
A daily close above the high end of the zone at 2600 indicates a stronger upward trend, possibly enticing bulls to rally the price towards the 2700 mark. In this case, the resistance level of 2650 should be considered.
On the other hand, failure to close above the high-end level at 2600 reflects a weakening bullish momentum, potentially sending the price to revisit the low end of the zone.