Is Apple approaching a major move?

Soft iPhone sales?

While conflicting reports have emerged about Apple’s iPhone 16 demand, last week UBS analyst David Vogt said, “Wait times in the US for the high-end 16s (Pro and Pro Max) did not notably tick higher like the wait times for the high-end 14 and 15s… Typically, at this point in the launch cycle, wait times at the high end have ticked higher sequentially as demand remained somewhat stable.”

In other words, because Apple has filled iPhone 16 shipments on time, Vogt believes it signals that the backlog of orders may be less than previous models.

The bulls remain in control

With a 2-1 edge over the bears, the bulls have support from the 20-day MA (the blue line) and the upward-sloping white line (labelled trendline support). The former is a key metric to monitor, as it largely marked the bottom in June 2024 and the top in early August 2024.

Similarly, the upward-sloping white line provides backup support and should converge with the 20-day MA the longer Apple remains elevated.

The bear case

If you analyse the downward-sloping white line (labelled trendline resistance), you can see that Apple has made lower highs in recent weeks. The bulls have been unable to break through the threshold, and the longer this persists, the narrower the price action becomes.

Consequently, continuing the theme means both white lines will eventually collide, potentially resulting in a major move in either direction.

How to manage risk

With all the unknowns on the horizon, the best approach is to closely monitor the 20-day MA and the upward-sloping white line. If Apple trades above both, the bulls have the upper hand and there is little to be concerned about.

If a breakdown below the white line occurs, Apple could correct back to the August lows near $200, which remains a significant long-term support zone.