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Trends & Analysis
News

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BRIC currencies mostly gain as US inflation rises

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Refresh your portfolio with Coca-Cola?

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Nasdaq jumps over 1% as Santa Claus rally begins

Thursday, December 26, 2024

Today’s headlines

What’s happening: US stocks closed higher on Tuesday in a shortened Christmas Eve session.

What happened: A rally in mega-cap and growth stocks sent the Nasdaq 100 index higher by almost 300 points.

The Dow Jones index also recorded gains for the fourth consecutive session, as investors assessed the latest economic reports.

Why it matters: Wall Street stocks had staged a rally to record highs in November, after Donald Trump won the US Presidential elections. Stocks were buoyed by expectations of Trump’s pro-business policies. However, the equity market pared some gains earlier this month amid higher-than-expected inflation data.

Although the US Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rates for the third time in 2024 last week, Chairman Jerome Powell signalled a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts. He indicated just two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2025, compared to expectations of four cuts. Concerns around Trump’s policies resulting in higher inflation also exerted pressure on the stock market.

Shares of all the Magnificent Seven (the top tech companies) recorded gains on Tuesday, with Tesla’s stock spiking more than 7% to log its strongest single-session performance in six weeks.

Gains in the shares of automakers sent the consumer discretionary index higher by around 2.6% on Tuesday. All major sectors ended the session on a positive note, with consumer discretionary stocks leading the gains.

Chip manufacturers also moved higher on Tuesday. Shares of Arm Holdings, Broadcom and Nvidia added 4.0%, 3.2% and 0.4%, respectively.

Growth stocks moved higher despite the benchmark 10-year Treasury note surging to the highest level since May. Generally higher debt costs negatively impact growth shares.

The Dow Jones index jumped 390.08 points, or 0.91%, to close at 43,297.03 on Tuesday, after having fallen for 10 straight sessions to record its longest losing streak since 1974.

The S&P 500 added 1.10% to settle at 6,040.04, while the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.37% to close at 21,797.65.

US stock markets closed at 10pm UAE time on Tuesday and remained closed on Wednesday for Christmas.

What to watch: Investors await the release of economic data on jobless claims (1730 UAE Time) and money supply (2000 UAE Time) from the US today. Initial jobless claims, which declined by 22,000 from the previous week to a reading of 220,000 during the first week of December, are expected to ease further to 218,000 in the latest week.

The markets today

The euro in focus today ahead of next week’s manufacturing PMI data

Context: The EUR/USD forex pair fell this morning as investors monitored the European Central Bank’s monetary policy outlook.

Details: Earlier this month, the ECB had cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, in-line with market projections. The recent rate cut was the fourth one in the current monetary tightening cycle. The central bank also signalled further rate cuts in 2025.

The ECB also lowered its economic growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 0.7% for the current year and by 0.2 percentage points to 1.1% for 2025.

Some weakness in the US dollar lent support to the EUR/USD forex pair on Thursday. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell 0.1% to 108.14 this morning.

The EUR/USD slipped 0.1% to 1.0402 this morning, while the EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8293.

The STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 0.18% to close at 503.81 on Tuesday, as European markets remained closed on Wednesday for Christmas.

What to watch: With no major economic reports scheduled for release this week, investors await economic data on manufacturing PMI, loans to companies, loans to households and M3 money supply from the Eurozone next week.

The HCOB Eurozone manufacturing PMI is expected to remain at 45.2 in December. Bank lending to households in the Eurozone, which rose by 0.8% year-over-year to €6.907 trillion in October, is projected to rise by 0.8% in November.

Other Markets: Asian trading indices traded higher this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and China’s Shanghai Composite up by 0.53% and 0.06%, respectively.

The news shaping the markets

Italy’s government said that the cabinet had passed a law allowing it to continue providing equipment to Ukraine until the end of next year to help in the ongoing war with Russia. The news sent the RUB/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.


Turkey’s manufacturing confidence index declined to 99.1 in December, from 100.4 in November. The latest reading being the lowest since August exerted pressure on the TRY/USD forex pair.


Thailand’s trade deficit narrowed to $0.22 billion in November, from $2.40 billion in the year-ago period. However, the THB/USD pair fell slightly in forex trading this morning.


Japan’s leading economic indicators index rose to 109.1 in October, compared to a preliminary reading of 108.6. The latest reading coming in higher than the previous month’s 108.9 lent support to the JPY/USD forex pair.


The Bank of Korea announced plans to slash interest rates further in 2025 amid economic growth pressures, sending the KRW/USD pair lower in forex trading this morning.

What else to watch today

Spain’s PPI (1200 UAE Time), France’s unemployment benefit claims (1500 UAE Time) and jobseekers total (1500 UAE Time), Turkey’s interest rate decision (1500 UAE Time) and foreign exchange reserves (1530 UAE Time), US continuing jobless claims (1730 UAE Time), EIA crude oil stocks change (2000 UAE Time), EIA gasoline stocks change (2000 UAE Time), EIA distillate stocks change (2000 UAE Time), EIA heating oil stocks change (2000 UAE Time), as well as Argentina’s retail sales (2300 UAE Time).


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