NVIDIA Price: Key Drivers, Market Scenarios, and Technical Outlook

Markets are awaiting NVIDIA’s Q3 earnings report, scheduled for release tomorrow. Investors will be particularly focused on quarterly revenues, which are expected to exceed $40 billion, driven by sustained demand for the company’s semiconductor chips used in data centers and the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence across corporate and even government operations.

While Q3 figures are important, expectations for Q4 2025 will hold even greater significance for the markets. Any guidance suggesting that current demand levels will remain consistent throughout Q4 and in 2026 will be crucial in shaping market valuation for the company. Key drivers of continued demand could include ongoing AI expansion and the introduction of new chip models by NVIDIA. Conversely, Q4 guidance hinting at a slowdown (due to customers optimizing existing hardware and suspending new orders or rising competition) could raise concerns.

Possible Scenarios for NVIDIA Stock Movement

The Q3 earnings release, combined with Q4 projections, could spark sharp volatility in NVIDIA’s stock, potentially unfolding in one of three scenarios:

Scenario 1: Q3 results exceed expectations for revenue and EPS, accompanied by significantly stronger-than-expected guidance for Q4. In this case, investors may reprice the stock upward, triggering increased demand. The stock could open with an upside gap and rally by 5–10% in the short term as more bulls could enter the market.

Scenario 2: Q3 results are better than expected, but Q4 guidance aligns with current market expectations. The market may adopt a “sell-the-news” approach, viewing this as a sign that the major growth phase may be tapering. This could prompt investors to exit positions, potentially leading to a 10–15% decline in the stock price.

Scenario 3: Q3 results fall short of expectations with weak Q4 guidance, possibly due to a marked drop in demand or significant supply chain issues. This scenario could trigger a severe sell-off, with the stock potentially falling by more than 15%.

NVIDIA Stock – Technical Analysis

On November 10th, the stock corrected its upward trend, forming a lower high at 199.91. Following that, NVIDIA’s share price tested the 50-day moving average and continued to trade sideways above it. Currently, prices are trading within the range of $183.94 to $200.00 and appear headed toward the upper boundary. However, the psychological resistance level at $190.00 warrants attention.

Key Levels to Watch in the Bearish Scenario

A daily close below $183.94 would indicate that more bullish traders are exiting their positions, possibly initiating a downtrend toward $164.00. In this case, the support level marked on October 22 should be closely monitored.

NVIDIA – Daily Price Chart

Chart Source: ADSS Platform