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News
Friday, March 27, 2026
What’s happening: The US dollar edged lower this morning as investors continued monitoring the latest developments in the ongoing Middle East conflict.
What happened: US President Donald Trump extended the deadline for Iran to secure a deal by another 10 days.
Investors also responded to the latest economic reports, which set the stage for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
Why it matters: Over the weekend, US President Trump said that he had ordered military forces to hold off strikes against Iran’s power and energy plants for 48 hours amid “productive” talks with Tehran. Iran called this “fake news.” The US President then presented Iran a 15-point settlement plan to end the conflict, extending the ultimatum to five days.
Iran rejected the deal and sent its own conditions. Trump has again extended the deadline for strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure into April, while Iran indicated that it would not come to the negotiating table amid ultimatums.
Trump also said that Tehran had allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as a “gift” of oil shipments to the US.
Meanwhile, news of the US considering sending more ground troops to the Middle East raised concerns around the war extending for longer than hoped.
Last week, the US Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged, citing higher inflation due to the impact of the war. Investors also raised their speculations of a rate hike by the end of the year, in sharp contrast to expectations of rate cuts of more than 50 bps before the conflict.
Data released on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims in the US climbed by 5,000 to 210,000 during the third week of March. Despite the rise, claims remained below last year’s average.
The Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index rose to 11 in March from 10 in the previous month.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance versus a basket of major peers, fell around 0.1% to 99.85 this morning.
The EUR/USD forex pair rose 0.1% to 1.1541, while the GBP/USD pair gained more than 0.1% to reach 1.3346.
What to watch: Investors will keep an eye on any talks between the US and Iran to end the ongoing conflict.
Data on Michigan consumer sentiment (1800 UAE Time) will be released today. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to fall to 54 in March from 56.6 in the previous month. The year-ahead inflation expectations in the US are expected to remain at 3.4% in March.
Context: Equity markets in China traded higher this morning as investors responded to strong economic data.
Details: Data released this morning showed China’s industrial profits jumped 15.2% year-over-year to 1.02 trillion yuan during the first two months of the year, versus 0.6% growth in 2025.
US President Donald Trump is now scheduled to travel to China between May 14 and 15 for a summit with President Xi Jinping. Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt confirmed the dates of the meeting, which had been postponed from the original March 31 due to the Middle East conflict.
Shares of Kweichow Moutai and Zijin Mining recorded gains, while CNOOC and Foxconn Industrial were among the losers this morning.
Investors also responded positively to Trump extending the deadline to attach Iran by 10 days.
The CSI 300 Index rose around 0.2% to 4,486.99 this morning, while the SSE Composite Index rose more than 0.1% to 3,894.06.
What to watch: Investors await the release of data on China’s current account (1300 UAE Time) today. Analysts expect China’s current account surplus to rise to $242.1 billion in the fourth quarter, up sharply from $163.8 billion in the year-ago period.
Data on NBS manufacturing PMI, NBS non-manufacturing PMI and NBS general PMI will be released on Tuesday. China’s official NBS manufacturing PMI, which fell to 49.0 in February from 49.3 in the previous month, is expected to rise to 49.8 in March. Analysts expect the NBS non-manufacturing PMI to rise to 50.1 in March from 49.5 in February, while the NBS composite PMI output index is projected to climbed to 50.2 in March from 49.5 in the previous month.
Other Markets: US trading indices closed lower on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down by 1.01%, 1.74% and 2.38%, respectively.
A delegation of officials from Russia arrived in the US for meetings with their counterparts. The news sent the USD/RUB pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Philippines’ trade deficit rose to $3.7 billion in February from $3.0 billion in the year-ago period. Imports surging 12.6% year-over-year to $11.0 billion lent support to the USD/PHP forex pair.
South Korea’s business survey index for the manufacturing sector edged lower to 71 in March from 72 in the previous month. Production surged to 88 and new orders rose to 84 sent the USD/KRW pair lower in forex trading this morning.
Colombia’s industrial confidence indicator rose 2.4 percentage points from the previous month to 0.9% in February, exerting pressure on the USD/COP forex pair.
UK’s GfK consumer confidence index declined to -21 in March from -19 in the previous month, reaching its weakest level in nearly a year. However, the GBP/USD pair edged higher in forex trading this morning.
Spain’s inflation rate (1200 UAE Time), European Central Bank’s consumer inflation expectations (1300 UAE Time), Brazil’s IGP-M inflation (1500 UAE Time), current account (1530 UAE Time), foreign direct investment (1530 UAE Time) and unemployment rate (1600 UAE Time), France’s unemployment benefit claims (1500 UAE Time) and jobseekers total (1500 UAE Time), India’s bank loan growth (1530 UAE Time), deposit growth (1530 UAE Time) and foreign exchange reserves (1530 UAE Time), Mexico’s balance of trade (1600 UAE Time) and unemployment rate (1600 UAE Time), Canada’s wholesale sales (1630 UAE Time) and budget balance (1900 UAE Time), US Baker Hughes oil rig count (2100 UAE Time) and Baker Hughes total rigs count (2100 UAE Time), as well as Argentina’s current account (2300 UAE Time).
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