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News

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News

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News

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Weekly Market Preview

Week Ahead Preview: 10 July 2023

Friday, July 07, 2023

Investors will have a busy economic calendar this week, featuring key data release and risk events such as inflation reports and interest rate decisions from major economies and central banks.

The resilience of the US economy led markets to price in already a 25-basis point rate hike in the meeting of July. Nonetheless, investors will remain vigilant for the June inflation report to gain insights into the Fed’s next move. Markets expect the headline CPI YoY to drop from 4% to 3.1% driven by softer energy prices, while the core CPI YoY to fall from 5.3% to 5% due to lower used car and trucks prices. Consequently, any lower-than-expected data may lead investors to put hold on pricing in any further rate hike beyond the July meeting.

Investors will closely monitor the wage growth data for May in the UK, as it provides further clarity into the expected direction of the Consumer Price index.  It is important to note that the Bank of England previously hiked rates by 50 bp. Therefore, the central bank would need a softer inflation print in June to slow down its pace in hiking rates from 50 bp to 25 bp.

The Bank of Canada resumed its policy tightening its policy and hiked rates by 25 bp. It is expected that the central bank will continue this course in the upcoming meeting and hike rates by another 25 bp from 4.75% to 5%. This decision is driven by a tight job market.

 

Economic Data Highlights 

 

Monday 10th of July 

CNH- Inflation Rate (Jun)
CNH- PPI Rate (Jun)
Fed Mester speech
Fed Bostic speech
BoE Gov Bailey speech

 

Tuesday 11th of July 
GBP- Unemployment Rate (May)
GBP- Retail Sales (Jun)
GBP Average Earning (May)
EUR- ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul)
EUR- Inflation Rate (Germany- Jun)

 

Wednesday 12th of July  

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
BoE Gov Bailey speech
USD- Inflation Rate (Jun)
BoC Interest Rate Decision
Crude oil inventories
Fed member Kashkari speech

 

Thursday 13th of July
GBP- GDP (May)
EUR- Industrial Production (May)
OPEC Monthly Report
USD- PPI Rates (Jun)

 

Friday 14th of July  

CHF – PPI Rate (Jun)
USD- Michigan Consumer sentiment Index (July)


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