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Weekly Market Preview
Friday, July 07, 2023
Investors will have a busy economic calendar this week, featuring key data release and risk events such as inflation reports and interest rate decisions from major economies and central banks.
The resilience of the US economy led markets to price in already a 25-basis point rate hike in the meeting of July. Nonetheless, investors will remain vigilant for the June inflation report to gain insights into the Fed’s next move. Markets expect the headline CPI YoY to drop from 4% to 3.1% driven by softer energy prices, while the core CPI YoY to fall from 5.3% to 5% due to lower used car and trucks prices. Consequently, any lower-than-expected data may lead investors to put hold on pricing in any further rate hike beyond the July meeting.
Investors will closely monitor the wage growth data for May in the UK, as it provides further clarity into the expected direction of the Consumer Price index. It is important to note that the Bank of England previously hiked rates by 50 bp. Therefore, the central bank would need a softer inflation print in June to slow down its pace in hiking rates from 50 bp to 25 bp.
The Bank of Canada resumed its policy tightening its policy and hiked rates by 25 bp. It is expected that the central bank will continue this course in the upcoming meeting and hike rates by another 25 bp from 4.75% to 5%. This decision is driven by a tight job market.
CNH- Inflation Rate (Jun)
CNH- PPI Rate (Jun)
Fed Mester speech
Fed Bostic speech
BoE Gov Bailey speech
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
BoE Gov Bailey speech
USD- Inflation Rate (Jun)
BoC Interest Rate Decision
Crude oil inventories
Fed member Kashkari speech
CHF – PPI Rate (Jun)
USD- Michigan Consumer sentiment Index (July)
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