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Weekly Market Preview
Monday, Sep 11, 2023
This week will be highly important for investors due to a slew of important economic data releases and updates from major central banks. One of the key data points, is the US inflation report for August. This data will have a direct impact on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions at the upcoming US Open Market Committee meeting.
Market expectations suggest that the CPI headline is likely to rise from 3.2% in July to 3.6% in August, primarily driven by the increase in energy prices. However, core inflation levels, which exclude energy and food items, are expected to decline from 4.7% in July to 4.3% in August. Therefore, any higher-than-expected data could reflect positively on the value of the US dollar, as it increases the odds for higher interest rates in the coming months. Additionally, investors will closely scrutinize US retail sales data for August to assess the impact of high interest rates on consumer spending. The US Producer Price Index data for August will also be of interest, as it can provide insights into the future trajectory of US inflation.
Concurrently, the market will be closely watching the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision. This decision holds considerable significance as it reflects the ECB’s commitment to addressing high inflation levels in Europe. Given the performance of European economies and a decline in the purchasing managers’ indices for both the industrial and service sectors, investors are anticipating the ECB to maintain interest rates at their current levels. If the ECB were to surprise the markets by raising interest rates, it could lead to an appreciation of the euro against other major currencies.
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