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Weekly Market Preview
Friday, 9th of May 2025
Investors are awaiting a series of key economic data releases this week, alongside speeches from monetary policymakers at major central banks.
In the U.S, the YoY Core CPI for April is expected to remain unchanged at 2.8% year-on-year, consistent with the previous month. Meanwhile, the YoY headline inflation is projected to rise from 2.4% in March to 2.6% in April. It’s important to note that the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its most recent meeting, with a unanimous vote by members to pause and assess the economic impact of new tariffs, which will take effect after the 90-day deadline set by President Trump.
Persistently high inflation remains a key factor limiting the Fed’s flexibility to significantly cut interest rates, particularly if unemployment rises. If inflation exceeds expectations, markets may scale back their rate cut projections or delay pricing in a larger number of cuts.
Attention is also turning to the release of preliminary European GDP data for the first quarter, which is expected to show an increase in growth from 0.2% in Q4 of last year to 0.4% in Q1. A stronger-than-expected result could indicate that European monetary policymakers are approaching a neutral interest rate level and may consider pausing further rate cuts—unless trade negotiations between the European Union and the United States break down, potentially sparking a trade war.
Although there are no clear signs of progress or setbacks in the ongoing talks, the European Union is reportedly preparing a contingency plan. If no agreement is reached, the EU may impose retaliatory tariffs on select U.S. imports in response to the tariff hikes announced by President Trump in April.
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