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Weekly Market Preview
Friday, Nov 10, 2023
In his recent address at the International Monetary Fund conference, the Federal Reserve Chairman sent cautionary signals to the markets, expressing that he “will not hesitate” to hike interest rates as necessary. This statement resulted in a slight uptick in US dollar prices and bond yields. However, a closer look at current market sentiment reveals that investors remain sceptical about the likelihood of the US central bank raising interest rates in its upcoming meeting.
Powell’s speech is perceived as an attempt to bolster the value of the dollar following its recent decline, recognizing that a robust dollar assists the central bank in curbing inflation. Other Fed members believe that the full impact of interest rate hikes on economic activity is yet to be seen, and they are still evaluating whether the rise in long-term bond yields helps temper the strength of the US economic activity.
The markets’ focus this week will be on inflation data releases, particularly the upcoming US Consumer Price Index figures. Expectations are for a decline from 3.7% in September to 3.3% in October, attributed to lower energy prices, which fell below $80 per barrel for the first time in several months while core inflation levels are expected to stabilize at 4.1%. Any lower-than-expected data would reinforce the market’s belief that the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates in its December meeting. Similar impacts are anticipated on the consumer price index in the UK due to the decline in energy prices, with a projected decrease from 6.7% in September to 4.7% in October, while Eurozone headline inflation is expected to remain stable at 2.9%.
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