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Weekly Market Preview
Friday, 11 July 2025
At the start of the week, traders are closely watching the release of U.S. Consumer Price Index data for June. Forecasts suggest that the YoY core inflation (excluding food and energy) may rise from 2.8% in May to 2.9% in June, while the YoY headline inflation is expected to increase from 2.4% to 2.5%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its most recent meeting, with most members opting to pause to assess the economic impact of tariffs, particularly on inflation. Persistently high inflation remains a key factor limiting the Fed’s ability to implement substantial rate cuts, even in the face of elevated unemployment. Therefore, if inflation comes in lower than expected, it could pave the way for a rate cut as early as the September meeting and potentially signal further easing later this year.
Meanwhile, investors are also anticipating the release of the UK’s CPI data for June. The UK YoY inflation is projected to rise from 3.4% in May to 3.7% in June, with the YoY core inflation expected to edge up from 3.5% to 3.6%. Inflation remaining above 3% continues to pose a challenge for the Bank of England in initiating rate cuts. Nevertheless, Bloomberg forecasts a 25-basis point rate cut at the BoE’s August meeting. Should the June inflation data come in below expectations, it may strengthen the case for additional cuts later in the year by the Monetary Policy Committee.
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