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Weekly Market Preview
Monday, 14th of October 2024
This week, markets are closely watching significant economic data releases, including interest rate decisions from major central banks. A key focus is on the UK inflation figures for September. In August, the UK’s consumer price index (CPI) held steady at 2.2%, while core CPI (which excludes energy and food) increased from 3.3% in July to 3.6% in August. This has led to market speculation that the Bank of England might cut interest rates, though at a slower pace than other central banks. Bloomberg reports a 25-basis point rate cut for the November meeting has been priced in by more than 90%; however, the probability for another 25-basis point rate cut in December stands at just 50%. As a result, if core inflation remains stable or proves difficult to reduce in September, investors may delay anticipating a December rate cut, awaiting more data in the months ahead.
Investors are also eagerly awaiting the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision this week. According to Bloomberg, the ECB is expected to reduce rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting, especially considering the YoY headline CPI fall to its lowest point since April 2021. The CPI fell from 2.2% in August to 1.8% in September. Markets have already priced in a 25-basis point rate cut for the next meeting with around 95% certainty, and over 100% certainty for a similar cut in December.
Monday, 14th of October
Tuesday, 15th of October
Wednesday, 16th of October
Thursday, 17th of October
Friday, 18th of October
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