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The US inflation data for September, just released, carries two vital messages for the markets. Firstly, core inflation levels on a monthly and yearly basis, excluding the volatility of oil and food prices, were in line with expectations. This suggests that the current interest rate levels might effectively guide inflation back towards the 2% target, making an immediate rate hike in the upcoming Fed meeting potentially unnecessary. Secondly, the CPI headline levels displayed a strong dependency on oil prices, indicating that if oil rates revert to June levels, the main inflation index could drop below the 3% threshold.
Looking ahead to this week, the market is anticipating further inflation data releases from major economies, including the Eurozone, UK, and Canada. These figures will provide insight into whether central bank rates in these regions have peaked or if there might be further adjustments. Investors will closely monitor speeches by Federal Reserve members scheduled for this week, as they are expected to provide valuable insights into the central bank’s long-term policy stance. This includes their expectations regarding a “soft landing” or efforts to avoid a recession. Additionally, investors are eager to understand the Federal Reserve’s perspective on possible rate cuts in the upcoming year.
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