Weekly Market Preview
Friday, July 14, 2023
The US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) of June showed a decline to 3%, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) dropped to 4.8% primarily due to lower prices of used vehicles. This unexpected softening of inflation led to a positive response in the US stock markets, with indices rallying, while the US dollar plummeted.
The market attention will be directed towards upcoming inflation reports from other major economies, as they will provide insights into potential monetary polices and guid investors behaviour.
Markets will particularly focus on the June CPI figures of the UK after the hooter than expected May data which showed the headline inflation rate at 8.7% and the core at 7.1% and led the bank of England to surprise with 50 basis points rate hike and hint at a prolonged period of tight monetary policy. Investors’ expectations suggest that interest rates in the UK could reach 6% by the end of 2023.
Additionally, the Eurozone inflation numbers are also scheduled to be released this week. Market anticipations point to a stabilization at 5.5% mainly driven by cheaper energy prices. That said, any lower-than-expected read will increase the odds to a possible rate hike pause in the European interest rates by the beginning of Q4 of 2023.
• CNH- GDP YoY (Q2)
• CNH- Industrial Production (JUN)
• ECB President Lagarde speech
• USD- Retail Sales (JUN)
• CAD- Inflation Rates YoY (JUN)
• USD- Industrial Production (JUN)
• NZD- Inflation Rates (Q2)
• GBP- Inflation Rates (JUN)
• EUR- Inflation Rates (JUN)
• USD- Building permits (JUN)
• Crude oil inventories
• AUD- Unemployment Rates (JUN)
• EUR – PPI (Germany- JUN
• JPY – Inflation Rates (JUN)
• GBP- Retail Sales (JUN)
• CAD- Retail Sales (JUN)