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Weekly Market Preview
Friday, Mar 29, 2024
Gold prices hit an all-time-high last week, surpassing the $2,200 per ounce mark for the second time, despite the US dollar’s appreciation. The greenback surge occurred amidst statements from some Federal Reserve members asserting no urgency in cutting interest rates. They emphasised the need for a significant decline in inflation levels for two consecutive months before considering rate cuts.
This week, investors’ attention will be on the US jobs report for March. Bloomberg forecasts suggest approximately 203,000 jobs may be added to the US economy in March, with the largest share coming from sectors such as local governments, hospitality, education, and health services. However, it’s important to note that most of the added jobs in the past year were from sectors that typically offer low-quality employment, often characterized by part-time work or low wages. Unemployment levels are expected to stabilize at 3.9%, accompanied by a decrease in average hourly earnings from 4.3% in February to 4.1% in March. Any higher-than-expected data regarding job numbers and wages could lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious approach to interest rate reductions.
Additionally, markets are eagerly awaiting European inflation data for March. In February, inflation rose unexpectedly due to a surge in services sector inflation. The focus of the European Central Bank’s board members will be on the March data, where the YoY CPI headline is projected to fall from 2.6% in February to 2.5% in March. A continued decline in inflation levels could pave the way for potential interest rate cuts at the end of the second quarter of the year, as hinted by ECB President Christine Lagarde. Therefore, inflation reports for April and May will play a crucial role in determining the ECB’s decision at the June meeting.
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