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Weekly Market Preview
Friday, June 26, 2024
This week, investors will be closely monitoring several key data releases that directly impact the monetary policies of major central banks. Traders are particularly focused on the European Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June. Bloomberg forecasts a YoY CPI headline to decline from 2.6% in May to 2.5% in June, and a decrease in the YoY core CPI (excluding energy and food) from 2.9% in May to 2.7% in June. In its last meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at the possibility of further cuts this year. Any lower-than-expected inflation data would increase the likelihood of the ECB cutting rates at the September meeting.
Markets will be closely monitoring the results of the British general elections. Opinion polls suggest that the Labour Party is leading with 41% of the votes compared to 20% for the Conservatives. To secure a majority in the House of Commons, the Labour Party needs to win 326 out of 650 seats. Failure to do so could result in a hung parliament, creating uncertainty about the next Prime Minister identity and potentially negatively affecting British stock indices. Conversely, a thumping victory for the Labour party may reassure investors, especially given the party’s potential for closer relations with the European Union.
Later in the week, the US jobs report for June will be released. Expectations indicate that the US unemployment rate may remain stable at 4%, with the number of jobs added to the economy decreasing from 275,000 in May to 185,000 in June. A jobs report falling short of expectations could signal a weakening labour market and increases the odds for interest rate cuts at the September meeting.
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