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Weekly Market Preview
Monday, Sep 25, 2023
After a busy economic calendar last week, investors are expected to start the week at a slower pace. Their primary focus will be on speeches by central bank members, from which they hope to gather hints about the monetary policy direction for 2024, particularly regarding the potential timing for easing the current tight policy. Additionally, the markets will eagerly await the Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for September and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for August.
The recent FOMC meeting delivered a significant message, signaling a high likelihood of another 25-basis point rate hike in 2023. This was indicated in the dot plot during the September meeting. Moreover, there was an implicit acknowledgment of the possibility of a “hard landing” scenario. The Federal Reserve chair refrained from explicitly stating an expectation of a soft landing for the US economy during his remarks last Wednesday. However, he mentioned that it was “possible,” reiterating that achieving a soft landing remains the Fed’s primary objective.
Looking ahead, this week will feature more speeches by Fed officials, providing a platform for them to elaborate on their perspectives regarding the performance of the US economy, with more clarity about whether the anticipated rate hike may occur in November or December or not occurring at all.
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