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News

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Weekly Market Preview

Week Ahead Preview: 26 June 2023

Friday, June 23, 2023

Investors will have a busy economic calendar this week as they will be following major economies inflation and growth data with central banks presidents’ speeches. The Fed chair and the ECB president are scheduled to give their speeches, and it is highly likely for them to maintain their hawkish tone as inflation rates in both economies remain far from their 2% target.

The FOMC has increased the US borrowing costs by 500 basis points since last year and paused hiking rates in its June meeting to assess the impact of the rate hiking cycle on the economy therefore, we would likely need to see a slowdown in the June NFP numbers and another drop in the inflation rates to favour the continuation of the rate hike pause in the FOMC July meeting. On the other hand, markets expect that the ECB to keep hiking rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming two meetings before thinking of any rate hike pause.

Investors will follow the Eurozone inflation flash numbers and expect that the CPI headline to come down from 6.1% in May to 5.7% in June. Its noteworthy that any lower-than-expected data would increase the odds for the ECB to pause its rates hikes in Q4 -2023.

On the other side of the pond, the market expects a slower growth rate in the US (1.4% in Q1) however, in her last interview the US treasury secretary Janet Yellen said that there was a lower risk for a fall into recession, and that inflation may retreat further partly due to an expected adjustment in the housing market.

Economic data highlights

 

Monday 26th of June

• EUR- Ifo Business Climate (June)
• ECB President Lagarde speech

Tuesday 27th of June

• CAD- Inflation Rate (May)
• USD- Durable Goods Orders (May)
• USD- Consumer Confidence (Jun)

Wednesday 28th of June

• AUD- Inflation Rate (May)
• EUR- Gfk Consumer Confidence (Germany-Jul)
• Fed Chair Powell Speech
• ECB President Lagarde speech
• US Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday 29th of June

• JPY- Retail Sales (May)
• AUD- Retail Sales (May)
• EUR- Consumer Confidence (Jun)
• EUR- Inflation Rate (Germany-Jun)
• USD- GDP growth rate Q1
• USD- Core PCE Price index Q1
• Fed Bostic Speech

Friday 30th of June

• JPY – Unemployment Rates (May)
• CNH – Manufacturing & non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
• GBP – GDP growth Rate Q1 (June)
• CHF – Retail Sales (May)
• EUR- Inflation Rate (June)
• EUR- Unemployment Rates (May)
• USD – PCE Price index (May)
• USD- Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Jun)


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